After a quiet period set off by the coronavirus pandemic, private equity deal activity in the United States surged through mid-November as investment managers prepare for a possible tax policy change under President-elect Joe Biden. And the middle market has seen an uptick in deals. The overall ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
Comment: Treasury Department moves to end select pandemic-era lending programs
Risks to the economic outlook have been rising recently because an array of benefits meant to blunt the economic downturn are scheduled to expire on Dec. 31. Those risks increased on Thursday when the Treasury Department told the Federal Reserve that it would not extend nine of the 13 liquidity and ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: A key measure of future inflation implies disinflation risks
The Federal Reserve’s preferred forward-looking inflation metric -- called the five-year, five-year forward break-even inflation rate -- implies that pricing risks to the economic outlook revolve around disinflation, not inflation, over the next 10 years. The metric -- which measures the expected ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Existing home sales climb, further depleting inventory
Existing home sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.85 million in October, representing a 4.3% increase month over month and the highest level since February 2006, according to data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors. This increase, combined with homeowners’ ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims: Data going wrong way as pandemic intensifies
Initial jobless claims increased by 742,000 for the week ending Nov. 14 as the pandemic intensified and lockdowns spread across the economy. Continuing claims increased to 6.37 million, while 20.3 million people remain on some form of unemployment insurance, according to Labor Department data released on ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Homebuilder confidence reaches all-time high
Confidence among homebuilders reached an all-time high in November as buyers looking for more room to live and work continued to enter the market, according to the National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index released on Wednesday. The index, which rose to 90, is a composite measurement of ... READ MORE >
The year ahead: Resilience, recovery and reimagination
A series of cross currents in public health, public policy and economics will shape growth conditions across the American economy during the year ahead. The juxtaposition of an intensifying pandemic and the encouraging developments in the race to find a vaccine is the perfect metaphor for growth over the ... READ MORE >
U.S. industrial production rose 1.1% in October
The Federal Reserve on Tuesday said its index of industrial production, a measure of output at factories, mines and utilities, rose last month as output continued to recover from the depths of the spring. Total production rose 1.1% in October, slightly above economists' consensus of 1.0%, following a ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Retail sales rose 0.3% in October, the slowest increase in six months
Retail sales in the United States grew at a 0.3% monthly rate in October, slower than analysts’ expectations of 0.5% and the slowest rate in six months. Yet there was still an increase for the month of 7.1% year over year overall and 5.3% year over year excluding autos, the Commerce Department reported on ... READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: A worsening emergency, as seen in five charts
It took seven days for the novel coronavirus to infect another million people in the United States, with cases growing from 10 million on Nov. 6 to 11 million on Nov. 13. At the current rate of spread – and unless state and local governments insist on social-distancing practices – the RSM model shows a ... READ MORE >