Global auto production has declined 32% on a year-ago basis largely because of the combined impact of the global trade war and pandemic. But as dour as that reality is, there are signs that the disruptions to global supply chains will ease as the global economy emerges from a deep slump and the ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
CHART OF THE DAY: Consumer Price Index shows little risk of inflation
The long shadow of the pandemic-induced shock continues to hang on the economy. The tone and tenor of the data continue to imply that the central bank and the fiscal authority have enormous space to sustain accommodative monetary policy and address the intensification of the pandemic in the near term, not ... READ MORE >
Looking ahead: next steps for the economy after Pfizer’s promising vaccine news
Pfizer and German biotech firm BioNTech’s Monday announcement that their COVID-19 vaccine candidate has shown to be more than 90% effective in preliminary results from an ongoing trial is a much needed win in the fight against the pandemic. It carries significant economic implications regarding the ... READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: Defining a national emergency
The spread of the coronavirus continues to accelerate. While it was taking about three to four weeks for the virus to spread to a million new people over the summer months, it took only 16 days for the case count to grow from eight million new infections on Oct. 11 to nine million on Oct. 27. It then took ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday's headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.9% understates the number of out-of-work people, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. In our estimation, this needs to be taken into account by policymakers around decisions on fiscal stimulus and other policies to stimulate ... READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Unequivocally strong numbers
The end of the 2020 census and the loss of its workers masked a robust 906,000 increase in private-sector payrolls in October that was far stronger than the implied figure of 638,000 would suggest. In addition, the decline in the unemployment rate to 6.9% occurred even as 724,000 workers re-entered ... READ MORE >
FOMC: Fed policy to remain steady amid economic uncertainty
The Federal Open Market Committee on Thursday kept its policy rate steady at a range between zero and 25 basis points and made little meaningful change to its policy statement. The Fed continued its asset purchase program at $120 billion per month and held the interest it pays on reserves at 0.1% and ... READ MORE >
U.S. employment report preview: Sustained improvement, downside risk
We expect total employment to increase by 580,000 and the unemployment rate to fall to 7.6% when the October estimate of employment conditions in the United States is released on Friday. While we anticipate a solid number, it is equally clear that the recall of workers is slowing and that the number of ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Modest improvement, but levels still elevated
First-time jobless claims continued to show modest improvement with the top-line figure arriving at 751,000 for the week ending Oct. 31. That is down 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 758,000, according to Labor Department data released on Thursday. After adding in the 382,883 people who ... READ MORE >
An inconclusive outcome: Election produces no winner, expected court challenge
The American election produced no clear outcome in the race for the presidency on Tuesday night, and instead brought uncertainty, financial market volatility and political risk across the business world. Based on market action overnight, one observation is clear: Markets prefer neither Democrats ... READ MORE >