It took nine days for the novel coronavirus to infect another million people, growing from 10 million on Nov. 6 to 11 million on Nov. 15. At the current rate of spread, the RSM model shows a million new cases every five days. … READ MORE >
coronavirus
CHART OF THE DAY: Darkness before the dawn in global auto manufacturing
Global auto production has declined 32% on a year-ago basis largely because of the combined impact of the global trade war and pandemic. But as dour that reality is, there are signs that the disruptions to global supply chains will be lifted. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Consumer Price Index shows little risk of inflation
The October Consumer Price Index was flat on the top line and in the core metric that excludes energy and food. … READ MORE >
Looking ahead: next steps for the economy after Pfizer’s promising vaccine news
Pfizer and German biotech firm BioNTech’s Monday announcement that their COVID-19 vaccine candidate has shown to be more than 90% effective in preliminary results from an ongoing trial is a much needed win in the fight against the pandemic. While significant challenges remain, we are likely now closer to the end of the pandemic than the beginning. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: Defining a national emergency
The spread of the coronavirus continues to accelerate. While it was taking about three to four weeks for the virus to spread to a million new people over the summer months, it took only 16 days for the case count to grow from eight million new infections on Oct. 11 to nine million on Oct. 27. It then took only 10 days for that figure to reach 10 million on Nov. 6. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
By adjusting the number of unemployed for the number of people who are not in the labor force but want a job, and the pandemic unemployment rate jumps to 8.0%, our analysis shows. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Unequivocally strong numbers
The end of the 2020 census and the loss of its workers masked a robust 906,000 increase in private-sector payrolls in October that was far stronger than the implied figure of 638,000 would suggest. … READ MORE >
FOMC: Fed policy to remain steady amid economic uncertainty
The Federal Open Market Committee on Thursday kept its policy rate steady at a range between zero and 25 basis points and made little meaningful change to its policy statement. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report preview: Sustained improvement, downside risk
We expect total employment to increase by 580,000 and the unemployment rate to fall to 7.6% when the October estimate of employment conditions in the United States is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims: Modest improvement, but levels still elevated
First-time jobless claims continued to show modest improvement with the top-line figure arriving at 751,000 for the week ending Oct. 31. That is down 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 758,000, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. … READ MORE >