The spread of the coronavirus throughout the South and Southwest, and the emergence of pockets of infection in Northeastern states, attest to the difficulty in controlling a pandemic during the summer and to diminished expectations for a quick turnaround in the economy. Though the rate of spread ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
ISM manufacturing gauge hits highest level since March 2019, but recovery is still a long way off
The Institute for Supply Management index, a closely watched measure of U.S. manufacturing activity, rose 1.6 points to 54.2 in July from 52.6 in the previous month, surpassing market expectations of 53.6. This marks the third consecutive month of expansion and a significant bounce from the 11-year low of ... READ MORE >
An SOS for commercial real estate
As the length and severity of the coronavirus pandemic continue to wreak havoc on the economy, real estate deals are at best being reworked and at worst falling apart altogether. The data tells a clear story: Transactions are down almost 70% in the second quarter, according to Real Capital ... READ MORE >
Three states report significant increases in initial jobless claims
The grim news from the national increase in initial jobless claims, which are adjusted for seasonal effects, was mitigated somewhat by the state-by-state raw counting of first-time filings for unemployment benefits. Only Virginia, Indiana and Nevada reported weekly increases in initial jobless ... READ MORE >
US gross domestic product: Actual vs. potential output
The discussion around economic growth going forward will be somewhat difficult and definitely misleading. The current Bloomberg consensus on third quarter growth in gross domestic product is 18% (RSM’s forecast is 14.2%), and that will likely be brought down noticeably in the coming days. The economy ... READ MORE >
First-time jobless claims rise for second straight week
The U.S. economy has moved sideways for the past six weeks and it appears that improvement in the labor market has begun to stall as initial claims for unemployment benefits increased for the second straight week. First-time jobless claims increased by 1.434 million for the week ending July 25, the ... READ MORE >
Assessing the bond market ahead of the coming change to Fed policy
With the economy stalling out over the past six weeks, the U.S. Treasury market appears to have had an appropriate response to the direction of monetary policy, risk and uncertainties regarding fiscal stimulus, and foreign and domestic demand for Treasury bonds. It would appear that investors are ... READ MORE >
FOMC rate decision: Waiting on September
The U.S. economy has largely moved sideways with a downward tilt over the past month as pent-up demand waned and lower- and middle-income households pulled back on spending in anticipation of a reduced pace of fiscal aid. The Federal Reserve used its policy statement and Chairman Jerome Powell his ... READ MORE >
Education technology will be crucial this school year, could see record venture capital in 2020
As fall draws near, school districts, educators and parents are trying to figure out what educational plans will look like for students and teachers in the 2020-2021 academic year. Earlier in the pandemic, UNESCO estimated that nearly 1.5 billion learners globally were affected by school closures. On July ... READ MORE >
School’s out for summer (or forever?)
It seems as if we are living through an alternate version of Alice Cooper’s song. While the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact across real estate sectors, student housing, once a beacon of stability, is now vulnerable as universities rethink their plans for the school year. Universities ... READ MORE >