After nearly two years of extreme accommodation in the financial markets, the RSM US Financial Conditions index stands at 0.96 standard deviations above neutral—a decline from the elevated levels during the pandemic and a sign that markets are starting to price in more risk. The index’s more modest ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
U.S. retail sales decline despite a strong holiday season
Price pressures and continued labor shortages magnified by the rapid spread of the omicron variant drove retail sales down by a disappointing 1.9% in December. The decline on the month came despite a strong holiday shopping season, when many consumers heeded warnings about depleted inventories and made ... READ MORE >
Americans’ real earnings are higher today than before the pandemic
Even as prices have soared in recent months, American workers are earning more than they did before the pandemic as the overall gains in their wages have outpaced inflation over the past two years. The real average hourly wage rate in December—which is adjusted for inflation and is an indicator for ... READ MORE >
Initial U.S. jobless claims exceed pre-pandemic level as omicron variant sets in
New filings for U.S. jobless benefits last week rose to 230,000 from 207,000 the week before, exceeding the average pre-pandemic level for the first time in six weeks as the impact of the omicron variant began to be felt in the labor market. The unexpected increase in new claims was also influenced by ... READ MORE >
RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index shows the return of risk
Risk is being reintroduced into Canada’s financial markets as investment decisions and monetary policy begin to pivot from interest rates at the zero bound. Though the rates are still far lower than in normal times, three-month Treasury bills have moved off recent lows, with the forward market now ... READ MORE >
U.S. December jobs report: Economy has strongest year of job creation on record
Recovery, resilience and reimagination are apt descriptions of the American economy two years into a debilitating pandemic. Like a bruised prizefighter in the late rounds of a championship match, the American economy closed the year on a strong note by adding 199,000 jobs in December. Once one ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Service sector grew at slower pace in December
The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector grew at a much slower rate in December as supply chain delays continued to put a drag on service activities, according to a report Thursday from the Institute for Supply Management. The slower rate of growth will most likely persist given that the ... READ MORE >
Canada’s merchandise trade surplus increases, lifted by vaccine production
Canada’s international merchandise trade surplus widened to 3.1 billion CAD in November because of an unexpected source--the mass production of the COVID-19 vaccine, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Thursday. With the approval of the COVID-19 vaccines to children ages 5 to 11, demand ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain below pandemic level despite seasonal uptick
New filings for unemployment insurance last week ticked up to 207,000 from 198,000, continuing to stay below the pre-pandemic level amid a tight labor market where businesses are holding onto their workers. The headline number for jobless claims has been below the 2019 average of 218,000 for the past ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Expansion continues despite omicron, supply chain uncertainty
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index remained solid in December at 1.3 standard deviations above neutral as the economy continued to expand into the end of the year. But that strength is in question as the omicron variant continues to spread. Our index moderated during December, mostly on a slump ... READ MORE >