Consumer confidence increased in October, snapping a three-month decline, as concerns about the delta variant subsided. The headline Consumer Confidence Index rose to 113.8, up from 109.8 in September, as consumers expressed a more buoyant view of the economy, according to Conference Board data ... READ MORE >
Covid-19
GDP preview: Look for 2.9% growth in third quarter
Economic growth in the third quarter will capture the impact of the delta variant on the economy as disruptions to supply chains and rising inflation have dampened household consumption and fixed investment by businesses. We expect that U.S. gross domestic product in the third quarter will arrive at ... READ MORE >
Inflation in Canada persists amid shortages
Inflation is proving to be persistent in Canada, with the Consumer Price Index increasing at an annual pace of 4.4% in September amid shortages of workers and supplies. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, the index rose by a more moderate 3.3% on a year-over-year basis, but it was ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: U.S. housing starts and permits slowed amid shortages
Housing starts and permits stayed below expectations in September, signaling a supply slowdown because of shortages of materials and labor. The headline figure for housing starts fell by 1.6% on the month to 1.555 million units annualized because of a drop in multifamily units while single-family ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: U.S. industrial production fell as Ida’s impact lingered
The impact of Hurricane Ida continued to be a drag on industrial production in September, accounting for a significant drop not only in mining but also in manufacturing output. Overall industrial production fell by 1.3% in September compared to August, with 0.6 percentage points of the drop resulting ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Consumer sentiment eases
The headline consumer sentiment index inched down to 71.4 in October from 72.8 in September because of an uptick in short-term inflation expectations and higher gas prices, according to data released by the University of Michigan on Friday. At the same time, consumer expectations for inflation in the ... READ MORE >
Retail sales defied expectations, continuing to rise in September
Retail sales defied expectations in September, rising in back-to-back months and highlighting the resilience in consumer spending amid supply shortages and the surge of the delta variant. Such strong sales numbers helped to offset some of the impact from rising prices in the Consumer Price Index for ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Producer Price Index slowed for second month
A day after the Labor Department reported that inflation for consumers had remained stubbornly high in September, the department reported that prices paid by sellers decelerated for the second month in a row. The headline Producer Price Index (PPI) eased to a 0.5% gain on a month-over-month basis, from ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims hit a pandemic low
In another sign of the continuing tight labor market, new jobless claims hit a pandemic low at 290,000 for the week ending Oct. 9, following an upwardly revised reading of 329,000 in the previous week. This significant drop continues to highlight a labor market in which demand for labor has been the ... READ MORE >
Inflation remains elevated as supply chain disruptions persist
Inflation continued to move at or near the top of its pandemic-induced pace in September with the overall Consumer Price Index increasing by 0.4% on the month and by 5.4% on an annual basis as supply chain disruptions fueled increases for the sixth consecutive month. Sectors that are sensitive to ... READ MORE >