For the third time in 20 years, the bottom has fallen out of oil prices, which will most likely have enormous implications for the economies of the U.S., Canada and Mexico, and have enormous potential geopolitical ramifications. … READ MORE >
Covid-19
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index breaks above 2018-20 downtrend
A rebound in manufacturing sentiment implies that the domestic economy is moving briskly back toward recovery. For this reason, we expect that the October Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index will reflect a modest improvement in overall sentiment and another month of robust new orders. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Markets prepare for favorable clean energy policies
Joe Biden’s clean energy plan has recently been a point of focus. And the prospect of a Biden victory in the presidential election has spurred a rise in stocks set to benefit from his proposed $2 trillion package. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Durable goods orders rise for fifth straight month
Orders for long-lasting factory goods increased for the fifth consecutive month in September, according to U.S. Department of Commerce data released on Tuesday. New orders for durable goods rose 1.9% in September compared with August. … READ MORE >
Third-quarter GDP preview: What we talk about when we talk about GDP
We are forecasting a 35.5% increase in GDP at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate when the third-quarter estimate is released on Thursday. That data will illustrate an enormous gap between actual and potential output that will take some time to close. … READ MORE >
Turning to self-employment: Business formation surges amid pandemic
According to census data, nearly 1.6 million applications for business formation were filed in the second quarter. That’s about double the applications filed at the start of the year. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: Rushing toward a third peak
Coronavirus infections in the United States have surged to new highs over the past week as the long-awaited third peak of its spread arrived well before the onset of winter. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: New home sales cool as inventory remains limited
New single-family home sales dropped 3.5% month over month as the robust market began to cool heading into the fall months. … READ MORE >
A recession like no other: Total vehicle miles traveled plummets to record lows
Total vehicle miles traveled dropped by an unprecedented 10% in the 12 months through August. In this lies an opportunity to improve the nation’s air quality and shore up its infrastructure. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The race to find a coronavirus vaccine
Scientists have been working at a blistering pace to shorten the vaccine development cycle from years to months in order to get a COVID-19 vaccine to market. With more than 190 such vaccines in development, there are several leading the pack. Here’s the latest on these efforts, as of Oct. 15. … READ MORE >