The front end of the Treasury curve is flashing red because of the possibility of another black swan event—the threat of default on Treasury securities on or around Oct. 18. … READ MORE >
debt ceiling
Modeling the shock to the economy from a debt-ceiling crisis
The inability of the political sector to reach an equitable compromise on lifting the U.S. debt ceiling will come into sharp focus over the next few days. The federal government will exhaust its funding on Thursday, but can temporarily remain in operation because of special measures taken by the Department … … READ MORE >
Government deficit widens in August as battle over debt ceiling heats up
As another potential showdown over raising the nation’s debt limit looms, the U.S. budget deficit in August reached $170.6 billion, widening the total deficit in the first 11 months of the 2021 fiscal year to $2.711 trillion. … READ MORE >
Budget brinkmanship as another debt-ceiling debacle looms
Once Congress returns from its summer recess, it will need to take up the funding of the government past Sept. 30, when the financing of its debt runs out at the end of the fiscal year. Lawmakers need to learn from the past that such debt ceiling showdowns extract a price from the economy. … READ MORE >