The headline consumer sentiment index inched down to 71.4 in October from 72.8 in September because of an uptick in short-term inflation expectations and higher gas prices, according to data released by the University of Michigan on Friday. At the same time, consumer expectations for inflation in the ... READ MORE >
Delta variant
Retail sales defied expectations, continuing to rise in September
Retail sales defied expectations in September, rising in back-to-back months and highlighting the resilience in consumer spending amid supply shortages and the surge of the delta variant. Such strong sales numbers helped to offset some of the impact from rising prices in the Consumer Price Index for ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Producer Price Index slowed for second month
A day after the Labor Department reported that inflation for consumers had remained stubbornly high in September, the department reported that prices paid by sellers decelerated for the second month in a row. The headline Producer Price Index (PPI) eased to a 0.5% gain on a month-over-month basis, from ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims hit a pandemic low
In another sign of the continuing tight labor market, new jobless claims hit a pandemic low at 290,000 for the week ending Oct. 9, following an upwardly revised reading of 329,000 in the previous week. This significant drop continues to highlight a labor market in which demand for labor has been the ... READ MORE >
Inflation remains elevated as supply chain disruptions persist
Inflation continued to move at or near the top of its pandemic-induced pace in September with the overall Consumer Price Index increasing by 0.4% on the month and by 5.4% on an annual basis as supply chain disruptions fueled increases for the sixth consecutive month. Sectors that are sensitive to ... READ MORE >
Job openings eased as quits hit a record
Demand for labor remained strong as job openings ebbed to 10.4 million in August following a record in July, which was revised upwardly to 11.1 million, according to Labor Department data released on Tuesday. Job hires declined in back-to-back months, to 6.3 million from the recent high of 6.8 million ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Commercial paper points to strong corporate recovery
Commercial paper issuance is strong and resembles the robust recovery in corporate activity that took place after the financial crisis. The level of commercial paper outstanding is mirroring the increase in economic activity that began in the fourth quarter of last year. Despite the recent ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: The ‘real’ unemployment rate is 8.2%
The headline U3 unemployment rate of 4.8% for September is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States. Under the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ methodology, those who are out of work and no longer looking for a job are not counted as unemployed and are not included ... READ MORE >
How $15 an hour became the de-facto minimum wage
It is becoming abundantly clear that the minimum wage has gone the way of buggy whip and that a new de facto entry-level wage of $15 per hour is becoming the national standard in the private sector. The shock to the economy unleashed by the pandemic and the response by workers have radically ... READ MORE >
September U.S. jobs report: One-time factors dampen hiring as unemployment rate falls to 4.8%
Widespread disruption to supply chains, the impact of Hurricane Ida, modest delays in the reopening of schools and day care centers and seasonal noise in the employment data all combined to dampen hiring in September. The United States added 194,000 jobs on the month, the Labor Department reported ... READ MORE >