The Bank of Canada needs to announce rate cuts during its June 5 meeting to spur economic growth. Any further delay and the bank would risk making a policy error and undermining Canada’s growth outlook. … READ MORE >
economic growth
Labor data shows economic strength as inflation concerns linger
Despite a slowdown in productivity and rising labor unit costs, the economy continues to show strength with initial jobless claims staying near recent lows and factory orders posting solid growth. … READ MORE >
R-star: The role of the natural rate of interest in monetary policy and economic growth
Known by economists as r-star, it has risen to a range between 1.75% and 2% in our estimation, a marked increase from the 0.5% that had prevailed over the previous 15 years. … READ MORE >
Private investment and the reintroduction of risk
Regime changes in global trade, growth and liquidity, along with a significant increase in geopolitical tensions, are reintroducing political and economic risk. … READ MORE >
Expectations at the end of business cycles
The Federal Reserve has a blunt yet effective instrument to fight inflation: raising the federal funds rate. But using it requires a delicate balancing act. We offer a snapshot of what to look for as the economic cycle plays out. … READ MORE >
Q2 US GDP: Economy contracts for second consecutive quarter
From our point of view, the economy will likely soon meet the formal definition of being in a recession, though it isn’t there yet. … READ MORE >
Canada GDP rose 0.4% in August as the economy reopened
The rise in spending on in-person services led the economic recovery, as August marked the first full month of most COVID-19 restrictions being lifted across the country. … READ MORE >
GDP preview: 6% growth forecast with room to accelerate
We expect that the initial estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the first quarter, which will be released Thursday, will show 6% growth, which is somewhat below the Bloomberg consensus of 6.8%. … READ MORE >
Global economy to expand by 6% as vaccinations accelerate
The events that shook the global economy to its core last year – policy errors and a pandemic occurring at the end of a decade-long business cycle — finally appear to be bottoming out. … READ MORE >
RSM recovery watch: Upgraded growth forecast and more evidence of a turn in the business cycle
There are arguably enough positive indications to begin planning for a return to normal commercial activity. Here is a sampling of what’s to come, or better put, what the data is suggesting. … READ MORE >