While the robust July retail sales numbers might come as a surprise given the various pressures on American consumers, the data was very well in line with our forecasts. … READ MORE >
economic indicators
Initial jobless claims fell 17,000 last week, easing growth concerns
The impact of Hurricane Beryl in Texas faded faster than expected in U.S. initial jobless claims data, helping push new claims to a four-week low of 233,000 for the week ending Aug. 3 … READ MORE >
Mixed signals from retail sales and industrial production data ahead of Fed meeting
Underlying retail sales showed a strong increase in June while industrial production posted another sharp drop, giving mixed signals on the health of the economy heading toward a pivotal period for rate hike decisions. … READ MORE >
Canada jobs report tops forecasts, showing resilience amid recession fears
Canada’s March job report came out hotter than expected, adding more pressure on the Bank of Canada’s fight against inflation. … READ MORE >
Risk metrics: Monitoring distress in the U.S. financial sector
RSM highlights what we consider the most important market indicators and their long-term trends. … READ MORE >
U.S. manufacturing payrolls negative for first time in 21 months
The negative figure wasn’t unexpected; the soft manufacturing labor data is simply catching up to the slowdown in activity. … READ MORE >
U.S. Q3 GDP: 2.6% growth overstates economic activity as probable recession looms
“Sound and fury signifying nothing” is an apt description of the 2.6% (1.8% year-over-year) seasonally adjusted annualized rate of growth in the third quarter of 2022. Excluding trade and inventories, real final sales to domestic private purchasers increased at an anemic 0.1%, which underscores our estimate of an elevated 65% probability of a recession over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >
U.S. new home sales fell 10.9% in September
The steep rise in mortgage rates has been the number one reason for the fall in demand. As the Federal Reserve increases interest rates to combat inflation, mortgage rates have spiked to a multi-decade high of more than 7%. … READ MORE >
Expectations at the end of business cycles
The Federal Reserve has a blunt yet effective instrument to fight inflation: raising the federal funds rate. But using it requires a delicate balancing act. We offer a snapshot of what to look for as the economic cycle plays out. … READ MORE >
Industrial production rose in July, tempering recession fears despite housing starts drop
Even alongside the decline in housing starts, this industrial data shows that recession fears may have been overblown after the economy contracted for two consecutive quarters in the first half of 2022. … READ MORE >