While robust July retail sales numbers might come as a surprise given the various pressures on American consumers, the data was very well in line with our forecasts ahead of the Thursday data release from the Commerce Department. Further disinflation and 15 consecutive months of positive real wage growth ... READ MORE >
economic indicators
Initial jobless claims fell 17,000 last week, easing growth concerns
The impact of Hurricane Beryl in Texas faded faster than expected in U.S. initial jobless claims data, helping push new claims to a four-week low of 233,000 for the week ending Aug. 3, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. The drop in new claims was much-needed good news, as the ... READ MORE >
Mixed signals from retail sales and industrial production data ahead of Fed meeting
Underlying retail sales showed a strong increase in June while industrial production posted another sharp drop, giving mixed signals on the health of the economy heading toward a pivotal period for rate hike decisions. Both data points, released by the government on Tuesday, are key factors ... READ MORE >
Canada jobs report tops forecasts, showing resilience amid recession fears
Canada’s March jobs report came out hotter than expected, adding more pressure on the Bank of Canada’s fight against inflation. While we don't see another rate hike in 2023 for now, there were not a lot of reasons from Thursday's Statistics Canada report that suggest we will see rate cuts either. The ... READ MORE >
Risk metrics: Monitoring distress in the U.S. financial sector
As this latest episode of banking distress makes clear, the health of the U.S. economy depends on the health of the financial sector. Even if a business seems far removed from Wall Street, trends in the financial markets have important implications on that company’s fiscal health and operations. U.S. ... READ MORE >
U.S. manufacturing payrolls negative for first time in 21 months
Manufacturing payrolls lost 4,000 jobs in February, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday, the first net reduction the sector has experienced since April 2021 during the depths of the pandemic-induced recession. The negative figure wasn’t unexpected after nearly six months of ... READ MORE >
U.S. Q3 GDP: 2.6% growth overstates economic activity as probable recession looms
“Sound and fury signifying nothing” is an apt description of the 2.6% (1.8% year-over-year) seasonally adjusted annualized rate of growth in the third quarter of 2022. Excluding trade and inventories, real final sales to domestic private purchasers increased at an anemic 0.1%, according to government data ... READ MORE >
U.S. new home sales fell 10.9% in September
New home sales dropped 10.9% to 603,000 in September from August, continuing the downtrend since a recent high in late 2020, according to data from the Census Bureau. Since the start of the year, U.S. sales have dropped more than 28% in total as housing demand has slumped. The steep rise in mortgage ... READ MORE >
Expectations at the end of business cycles
The Federal Reserve has a blunt yet effective instrument to fight inflation: raising the federal funds rate. But using it requires a delicate balancing act. In the best-case scenario, the Fed, by raising rates, reduces discretionary spending enough to stabilize prices, and the economy continues to ... READ MORE >
Industrial production rose in July, tempering recession fears despite housing starts drop
While a sharp drop in U.S. housing starts in July will continue to put a dent in the residential investment component of third-quarter gross domestic product, the strong bounce back of industrial production volume should temper recession fears. U.S. industrial production beat estimates last month, ... READ MORE >