“Sound and fury signifying nothing” is an apt description of the 2.6% (1.8% year-over-year) seasonally adjusted annualized rate of growth in the third quarter of 2022. Excluding trade and inventories, real final sales to domestic private purchasers increased at an anemic 0.1%, according to government data ... READ MORE >
economic indicators
U.S. new home sales fell 10.9% in September
New home sales dropped 10.9% to 603,000 in September from August, continuing the downtrend since a recent high in late 2020, according to data from the Census Bureau. Since the start of the year, U.S. sales have dropped more than 28% in total as housing demand has slumped. The steep rise in mortgage ... READ MORE >
Expectations at the end of business cycles
The Federal Reserve has a blunt yet effective instrument to fight inflation: raising the federal funds rate. But using it requires a delicate balancing act. In the best-case scenario, the Fed, by raising rates, reduces discretionary spending enough to stabilize prices, and the economy continues to ... READ MORE >
Industrial production rose in July, tempering recession fears despite housing starts drop
While a sharp drop in U.S. housing starts in July will continue to put a dent in the residential investment component of third-quarter gross domestic product, the strong bounce back of industrial production volume should temper recession fears. U.S. industrial production beat estimates last month, ... READ MORE >
University of Michigan survey: Consumer sentiment rises on better economic outlook
U.S. consumer sentiment rose more than expected in August on the back of the sharp drop in gasoline prices, but remains near a record low as consumers shouldered multi-decade-high inflation and continuing economic uncertainty. The University of Michigan's monthly consumer sentiment index increased from ... READ MORE >
Canada’s GDP steady as spending on services remained strong in May
Canada’s May GDP remained unchanged from April, as increases in service spending (0.4%) offset decreases in goods-producing industries (1%), according to data released by Statistics Canada on Friday. On a year-over-year basis, GDP grew by 5.6%, exceeding expectations. This makes Canada an interesting ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims in July continue rising layoffs trend
New filings for jobless benefits continued to beat market estimates to the upside, falling 1.9% to 256,000 for the week ending July 23. Given that the labor market is the main force keeping the economy from descending toward an economic trough, the initial jobless claims data released Thursday add ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall below pre-pandemic level while housing starts improve
Economic data released Thursday showed improvement in both weekly U.S. jobless claims for the week ending March 12 and housing starts in February. The number of building permits remained elevated, despite a small decrease on the month. New filings for jobless claims, a proxy for job layoffs, fell below ... READ MORE >
Canada retail sales climbed in August as in-person activities picked up
Canada retail sales rose by 2.1% to CA$57.2 billion in August due to increases in both prices and volume of goods sold, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Friday, a promising sign for the country's economic recovery. This increase was observed across all provinces in the first full month ... READ MORE >
Existing home sales rebounded in September to highest level since February
Sales of existing homes bounced back in September, with 6.29 million units sold, the highest level since February, and up 7% compared to the prior month, according to a report released on Thursday from the National Association of Realtors. The sales number was an upside surprise to earlier estimates of ... READ MORE >