Chrystia Freeland’s resignation as Canada’s finance minister highlights increasing political uncertainty as financial challenges loom in 2025. … READ MORE >
economics
Robust July retail sales defy growth scare
While the robust July retail sales numbers might come as a surprise given the various pressures on American consumers, the data was very well in line with our forecasts. … READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index shows ebbing confidence
Our composite RSM US Financial Conditions Index opened Tuesday at negative 0.2 standard deviations below zero. Although not significantly different from normal levels of risk, the overall trend shows a loss of confidence and increased volatility. … READ MORE >
Interest rate update: Inflation expectations remain subdued
At present, and because of greater price volatility due to the sudden reopening of the economy, the surge in consumer demand and subsequent supply chain issues, expectations are for the inflation rate in the next few years to move above 2.3% before settling back to roughly 2.25% over time. … READ MORE >
A 2021 ‘taper tantrum’? Not likely, but requires monitoring
The potential pulling back or altering the composition of the Fed’s accommodation to the economy via the financial channel will have an impact on interest rates that will directly affect what consumers pay for homes, autos and credit card interest. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Fed projects U.S. will reach pre-pandemic goals by end of 2022
The Federal Open Market Committee’s projections that the economy will be back on track and meeting pre-pandemic expectations by the end of 2022 should play a role in resetting interest rate expectations by professional investors and firm managers over the next 18 months. … READ MORE >
Bending the curve, reopening for business and avoiding the policy errors of the 1918-19 pandemic
Deaths attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic continue to mount, and data confirms that social distancing and a rigorous system of testing and tracing are necessary to slow the spread of the disease, and are working to mitigate the health crisis. Recent modeling work suggests that the slow adoption of social distancing practices as public policy and the concurrent slow adoption by individuals has increased the death toll in the United States, and will continue to do so until a vaccine or treatment regimen is developed. … READ MORE >