While robust July retail sales numbers might come as a surprise given the various pressures on American consumers, the data was very well in line with our forecasts ahead of the Thursday data release from the Commerce Department. Further disinflation and 15 consecutive months of positive real wage growth ... READ MORE >
economics
RSM US Financial Conditions Index shows ebbing confidence
The composite RSM US Financial Conditions Index opened Tuesday at 0.2 standard deviations below zero. Although not significantly different from normal levels of risk, the overall trend shows a loss of confidence and increased volatility, as would be expected at a moment of geopolitical ... READ MORE >
Interest rate update: Inflation expectations remain subdued
In the modern era of monetary policy and moderate growth, global authorities have shown twice in the past decade their ability to counter horrific shocks to the financial sector and economic activity. Therefore, inflation expectations remain remarkably well anchored despite the recent five-month surge in ... READ MORE >
A 2021 ‘taper tantrum’? Not likely, but requires monitoring
Over the past month, there has been much speculation by financial market participants that the Federal Reserve is preparing to pare back or change the outright composition of its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases—$80 billion in treasuries and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities—that have ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Fed projects U.S. will reach pre-pandemic goals by end of 2022
The Federal Open Market Committee’s quarterly projections for economic growth, unemployment and inflation suggest the economy will be back on track and meeting pre-pandemic expectations by the end of 2022. This should play a role in resetting interest rate expectations by professional investors and firm ... READ MORE >
Bending the curve, reopening for business and avoiding the policy errors of the 1918-19 pandemic
Deaths attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic continue to mount, and data confirms that social distancing and a rigorous system of testing and tracing are necessary to slow the spread of the disease, and are working to mitigate the health crisis. Recent modeling work suggests that the slow adoption of social ... READ MORE >