The U.S. labor market is showing signs of optimism that might best be described as hedging its bets—confident that the vaccination program will eventually allow for the reemergence of the normal workplace, but recognizing that it may not take just a snap of the fingers to get there. The surge in job openings—which hit a two-year high—and the elevated ... READ MORE >
employment
March jobs report blows past expectations with best still to come
An American economy about to regain its swagger after a year of pandemic-induced crisis was on full display in the March jobs report. The labor market added 916,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate declined to 6% from 6.2%. After adding in the 156,000-job upward revision to the January and February reports, the net change was an increase of 1.072 million ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Lagging employment in education and health care
Even as the economy begins to recover and jobs return, employment remains well below pre-pandemic levels in many key sectors. Two of these areas are education and health care, according to data recently released by the Labor Department. Overall, there are 1.3 million fewer educational and medical personnel on payrolls compared to a year ago. But as the ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. job openings improve
Workers are growing more confident in their ability to find a job, according to the most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. There were 5.1 million separations from employment on the back of 6.65 million job openings during October, according to the survey. The bureau considers the number of ... READ MORE >
Pandemic economics: Prospects for permanent job losses rising
Just as the coronavirus pandemic is forcing profound changes in the way Americans live and behave, it will also likely prove to be a catalyst for permanent changes in the economy and labor force. The long-term damage to the economy is already reshaping notions of where we work, how we work and how long we work each week. The data are already ... READ MORE >
Employment in black and white: Wage inequality
The American condition, no matter how one measures it, inevitably comes back to jobs and wages. Wage inequality, whether between men and women, or African-Americans and whites, is a real concern. Civil unrest in 350 of the 390 major metropolitan areas of the United States is not only a function of demands for social justice, but also the result of ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims are still six times higher than normal
We can add another 1.5 million Americans to the ranks of the newly unemployed. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13 are six times higher than the five-year average of 240,000 prior to the coronavirus pandemic. And in the 13 weeks since the shutdown of the economy, state employment agencies have processed 45.7 million first-time claims for ... READ MORE >
Weekly initial jobless claims: Much-needed context as claims rise by 1.5 million
While the pace of first-time jobless claims has declined over the past few weeks, such an improvement is still akin to saying someone has turned down the heat in hell. It is clear that the U.S. labor market remains impaired as first-time jobless claims increased by 1.5 million for the week ending June 13, and continuing claims advanced by 20.5 million for ... READ MORE >
The post-coronavirus economy: What to expect, and what is needed
We think that the U.S. economy has ended its pandemic-induced free fall. Tentative signs of the recession’s nadir are evident in near real-time data across the economy. It is now time to begin considering the shape of the post-pandemic economy: What it will look like, whose interests are given preference and how fiscal and monetary policy will drive ... READ MORE >
Closer look at monthly jobs data shows the glass only half full
The decade-long recovery from the Great Recession reveals some cracks in the glass. The monthly change in non-farm payrolls is closely followed by financial markets and is often the catalyst for outsized market moves. We say that because the payroll series is volatile, with a 1960-2020 average change of 184,000 jobs per month (when the economy is not in ... READ MORE >