Just as the coronavirus pandemic is forcing profound changes in the way Americans live and behave, it will also likely prove to be a catalyst for permanent changes in the economy and labor force. The long-term damage to the economy is already reshaping notions of where we work, how we work and how long we work each week. The data are already ... READ MORE >
employment
Employment in black and white: Wage inequality
The American condition, no matter how one measures it, inevitably comes back to jobs and wages. Wage inequality, whether between men and women, or African-Americans and whites, is a real concern. Civil unrest in 350 of the 390 major metropolitan areas of the United States is not only a function of demands for social justice, but also the result of ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims are still six times higher than normal
We can add another 1.5 million Americans to the ranks of the newly unemployed. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13 are six times higher than the five-year average of 240,000 prior to the coronavirus pandemic. And in the 13 weeks since the shutdown of the economy, state employment agencies have processed 45.7 million first-time claims for ... READ MORE >
Weekly initial jobless claims: Much-needed context as claims rise by 1.5 million
While the pace of first-time jobless claims has declined over the past few weeks, such an improvement is still akin to saying someone has turned down the heat in hell. It is clear that the U.S. labor market remains impaired as first-time jobless claims increased by 1.5 million for the week ending June 13, and continuing claims advanced by 20.5 million for ... READ MORE >
The post-coronavirus economy: What to expect, and what is needed
We think that the U.S. economy has ended its pandemic-induced free fall. Tentative signs of the recession’s nadir are evident in near real-time data across the economy. It is now time to begin considering the shape of the post-pandemic economy: What it will look like, whose interests are given preference and how fiscal and monetary policy will drive ... READ MORE >
Closer look at monthly jobs data shows the glass only half full
The decade-long recovery from the Great Recession reveals some cracks in the glass. The monthly change in non-farm payrolls is closely followed by financial markets and is often the catalyst for outsized market moves. We say that because the payroll series is volatile, with a 1960-2020 average change of 184,000 jobs per month (when the economy is not in ... READ MORE >
Start watching initial jobless claims as economy slows
Signals implying the slow demise of the decade-long economic recovery include the rising number of claims for unemployment insurance benefits. While we do not believe there is imminent risk of an explosion in demand for first-time benefits, once the pace of firings rises above 250,000 it likely marks an important turning point late in the business ... READ MORE >
August hiring slows: Jobs report shows unflattering shape of things to come
August hiring slowed to 130,000 jobs, reflecting late-cycle business dynamics and the impact of the trade war that is now spilling over into the real economy. After adjusting for Census Bureau hiring, the top-line hiring increase was only 105,000 jobs, just above the 100,000 necessary to stabilize the unemployment rate. In short, Friday’s government report ... READ MORE >
US employment preview: hiring deceleration amid steady unemployment rate
The U.S. economy likely generated roughly 150,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%. The July employment report—due to be released by the government Friday—is traditionally impacted by seasonal adjustments that will likely include sharp slowing in education and government hiring along with a notable pick up in leisure and ... READ MORE >
US employment report–April springs ahead
A dynamic U.S. labor market did not disappoint in April as the private sector created 236,000 new jobs and government added 27,000 for a net gain of 263,000 on the month. The monthly report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics saw the unemployment rate decline to 3.6 percent, the lowest level since December 1969. Upward revisions to the previous two months ... READ MORE >