Retail sales surprised to the upside in November as American consumers continued their robust spending. The gloomy holiday spending forecasts now seem to be out of the conversation. Instead, our estimate of billions in excess savings left on American households' balance sheets looks much more on point ... READ MORE >
excess savings
Excess savings are critical to the economic expansion’s duration
The American economy has shown resilience in the face of rising interest rates as consumers, bolstered by excess savings built up during the pandemic, have continued to spend. But how long can these savings last? According to our analysis of revised data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, ... READ MORE >
Fed’s key wage gauge falls to lowest level since June 2021
The Employment Cost Index—the Federal Reserve's closely watched metric on wage growth—increased by 1.0% in the second quarter, the slowest rate since June 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. That brought the 12-month increase of overall employment compensation down to ... READ MORE >
American consumers grow more cautious as spending falls
American consumers pulled back on their spending for the second month in a row in December amid a continuing economic slowdown and elevated inflation. Also contributing to the decline were weak income growth and the decreasing stock of excess savings. Spending fell by 0.2% in dollar terms and by 0.3% ... READ MORE >