The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% on Wednesday while revisions to its Summary of Economic Projections strongly imply that the central bank no longer expects a recession, which it did just six months ago, and is increasingly confident of a soft landing in the ... READ MORE >
federal open market committee
FOMC policy decision: The time for an end to rate hikes has arrived
The Federal Open Market Committee increased its policy rate to a range between 5.25% and 5.5% at its meeting on Wednesday. While the September, November and December meetings remain live options for more rate increases, we think that Wednesday’s hike is the final step in a two-year effort to ... READ MORE >
Fed pauses rate hikes while signaling a tightening bias
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday kept its policy rate in a range between 5% and 5.25% while signaling that it will most likely hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at least twice before the end of the year. This implies a possible policy peak of 5.75% later this year. ... READ MORE >
Job openings exceed 10 million as labor market imbalance widens
Job openings came in stronger than expected for April as the imbalance in the labor market widened, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday The latest data comes at an important juncture, two weeks ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated June ... READ MORE >
Fed hikes rate a quarter point while creating framework for a pause
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate for the tenth consecutive time on Wednesday, pushing the federal funds rate to a range between 5% and 5.25%. The 25 basis-point increase was accompanied by changes in the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement that imply a possible pause at ... READ MORE >
Catch-25: Fed hikes rates amid financial stability risk
Joseph Heller’s novel “Catch-22” delved into the impossible conditions imposed upon people caught in situations from which there is no escape because of mutually conflicting or dependent conditions. That Catch-22 is an apt description of where the Federal Reserve finds itself as it lifted its ... READ MORE >
Fed launches $25 billion lending program to prevent bank run
The Federal Reserve, Treasury Department and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation took decisive action Sunday to stem what was clearly a potential bank run. The $25 billion Bank Term Funding Program, announced Sunday night, was necessary to prevent a much larger crisis that would spread ... READ MORE >
U.S. job creation remains robust, implying more aggressive rate hikes
If one wanted to create a confluence of cross-currents that make the job of policymakers more difficult, one might choose the combination of a red-hot economy, robust job gains, elevated inflation and an estimated $620 billion in potentially unrealized losses inside the banking ... READ MORE >
February’s jobs report is likely to generate more questions than answers
The February jobs report will most likely provide another questionable estimate of labor conditions in the American economy, overstating the pace of hiring in the private sector. We expect a net change in total employment of 310,000 when the data is released on Friday, with many of the gains ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Fed to slow pace of rate hikes to 25 basis points
The easing of inflationary pressures, a slower pace of consumer spending and hiring, and the moderation of wage increases are coalescing in such a fashion that the Federal Open Market Committee next week should be comfortable slowing its rate increases. We anticipate that the FOMC will increase its ... READ MORE >