The February jobs report will most likely provide another questionable estimate of labor conditions in the American economy, overstating the pace of hiring in the private sector. We expect a net change in total employment of 310,000 when the data is released on Friday, with many of the gains ... READ MORE >
federal open market committee
FOMC preview: Fed to slow pace of rate hikes to 25 basis points
The easing of inflationary pressures, a slower pace of consumer spending and hiring, and the moderation of wage increases are coalescing in such a fashion that the Federal Open Market Committee next week should be comfortable slowing its rate increases. We anticipate that the FOMC will increase its ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: U.S. producer inflation remained elevated
Producer inflation remained elevated in May, even as the overall year-over-year number eased slightly, according to Labor Department data released on Tuesday. The report adds pressure on the Federal Reserve, which is meeting this week and considering more aggressive measures to tame inflation. We now ... READ MORE >
Updated FOMC call: Fed to hike policy rate by 75 basis points
The economist John Maynard Keynes once famously quipped, “When the facts change, I change my mind.” And so it goes ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy meeting this week. Based on movements inside the rate markets, quickly changing inflation expectations and a rattled investor class, we ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: 50-basis-point hikes through September
We expect that the Federal Open Market Committee this week will lift the federal funds policy rate by 50 basis points to a range between 1.25% and 1.5%, which the market has already priced in and should be of little surprise to investors, the public or other policymakers. What is of more interest is ... READ MORE >
FOMC decision: Policy, price stability and balance sheet strategy
Price stability is a precondition of maximum sustainable employment, sustainable growth at the long-term rate of 1.8% and financial stability. The Federal Open Market Committee's decision on Wednesday to increase the federal funds rate by a half-percentage point to a range between 0.75% and 1% in ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Rate hikes and balance sheet reduction are up next
Next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting will kick off an extraordinary two months of policy decisions by the Federal Reserve in which we expect the central bank to hike its policy rate by 100 basis points. These rate increases, starting with a 50 basis-point increase on Wednesday. will occur ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Powell caught in the crossfire
Next Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will result in the central bank hiking its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of between 0.25% and 0.5%. And with risks linked to the war in Ukraine exploding, we do not expect the Federal Reserve to outline its tentative plans to ... READ MORE >
Fed slows asset purchases as it moves to end pandemic-era accommodation
The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that later this month it would start paring back its pandemic-era monetary accommodation even as it held its policy rate between zero and 25 basis points. This policy step, announced after the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, creates ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Tapering explained
Next week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will focus on the Federal Reserve’s exit from its pandemic-era asset purchase program that has sent its balance sheet above $8.5 trillion. We expect that the Fed will announce plans to reduce its monthly monetary accommodation of $140 billion ... READ MORE >