We are updating our year-end rate call to 3.7% on the 10-year yield with risk of a move lower as growth, inflation and hiring cool. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
U.S. August jobs report: A soft landing in the economy
Hiring is cooling and we expect that will define the second half of the year as firms manage their mix of capital and labor to meet demand. … READ MORE >
Job openings fall amid imminent rate cuts
With job openings falling back to normal and the labor supply increasing, the labor market was in balance in July. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector declines at a slightly slower rate in August
A result of the slowdown was another month of employment declines, though at a slower pace at 46 compared to 43.4 in the prior month. … READ MORE >
Fed’s key inflation gauge shows price stability as consumers hit the accelerator
The American economy is poised to grow at or above the long-term 1.8% rate as the Fed begins its rate-cutting campaign, which should put a floor under growth and hiring. … READ MORE >
Second quarter GDP is revised higher amid stronger consumer spending
With price stability essentially achieved, a well-performing labor market should continue to be a significant tailwind for growth, especially for consumer spending, in the last two quarters of the year. … READ MORE >
Expect strong U.S. jobs report for August, but the devil is in the details
We expect a net gain in total employment of 175,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2% when the employment report is released on Sept. 6. … READ MORE >
Powell at Jackson Hole: Policy pivot signals the start of rate cuts
The Fed will need to put forward an appropriate framework—including a possible new inflation target—to communicate the rapid changes affecting the economy to the public, policymakers and investors. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims stabilize amid concerns over weak job gains
Initial claims last week rose by only 4,000, to 232,000, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Similarly, continuing claims for the week ending Aug. 8 increased by 4,000, to 1.863 million. … READ MORE >
The Fed nears a pivot: A webinar from RSM US and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Join RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President Neil Bradley as they discuss the economic outlook and what middle market companies should anticipate. … READ MORE >