Key inflation metrics reflect a more-than-tolerable range of inflation that requires no further tightening of monetary policy. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Service sector bounces back in July, easing growth concerns
The ISM service index for July rose to positive territory at 51.4 after dropping in June to 48.8, suggesting that some of the concerns over an imminent recession looked overblown. … READ MORE >
Notes on a classic market panic: Unwinding of the yen-based carry trade
The case for a supersized 50 basis-point reduction at its next meeting on Sept. 18 has been bolstered by the recent market turmoil. … READ MORE >
Productivity continues to climb as investments take hold
The rebound of labor productivity in the second quarter is another sign of why the economy will continue to be on strong footing even as the labor market cools. … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as it sets up for September cut
We expect that the FOMC will reduce the policy rate by 25 basis points at its September meeting and then do so again in December. … READ MORE >
Job openings exceed forecasts as layoffs and quits reach multiyear lows
Job openings continued to point to strong labor demand, staying above forecast at 8.18 million in June. May’s number was also revised up to 8.23 million. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation continues to ease in June as income and spending gain
Top-line inflation in the personal consumption expenditures index increased in June by 0.1% and by 2.5% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
American economy grew by 2.8% in second quarter, exceeding forecasts
A strong labor market, rising real wages and a 1% increase in disposable income bolstered household spending, which advanced by a sustainable 2.3%. … READ MORE >
GDP preview: U.S. top-line growth to show solid increase
The Fed will maintain its policy rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% when it meets at the end of July. But we anticipate a change in the committee’s policy statement that will signal a rate cut is on the table in September. … READ MORE >
Why a strong dollar is in America’s best interests
A strong dollar not only means that there is a healthy demand for American-made goods and services, but, perhaps more important, it is also a show of confidence in the U.S. government and financial institutions. … READ MORE >