Initial claims last week rose by only 4,000, to 232,000, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Similarly, continuing claims for the week ending Aug. 8 increased by 4,000, to 1.863 million. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
The Fed nears a pivot: A webinar from RSM US and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Join RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President Neil Bradley as they discuss the economic outlook and what middle market companies should anticipate. … READ MORE >
The TIPS bond market sees 2.1% inflation over the next 10 years
The recent drop in both Treasury yields and TIPS yields are adding credence to the success of the Federal Reserve’s campaign to squeeze inflation out of the economy. … READ MORE >
Seven reasons why the U.S. economy will not fall into recession
The American economy is not heading into a recession. The economy has shown resilience despite high interest rates and elevated inflation. … READ MORE >
Fed loan officer survey shows CRE standards continue to tighten
The tightened lending standards stem from an increase in funding costs and the increase in the loan-to-value ratios that we’ve seen across the nation. … READ MORE >
Producer prices grow slower than expected, adding evidence to support rate cut
Key inflation metrics reflect a more-than-tolerable range of inflation that requires no further tightening of monetary policy. … READ MORE >
Service sector bounces back in July, easing growth concerns
The ISM service index for July rose to positive territory at 51.4 after dropping in June to 48.8, suggesting that some of the concerns over an imminent recession looked overblown. … READ MORE >
Notes on a classic market panic: Unwinding of the yen-based carry trade
The case for a supersized 50 basis-point reduction at its next meeting on Sept. 18 has been bolstered by the recent market turmoil. … READ MORE >
Productivity continues to climb as investments take hold
The rebound of labor productivity in the second quarter is another sign of why the economy will continue to be on strong footing even as the labor market cools. … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as it sets up for September cut
We expect that the FOMC will reduce the policy rate by 25 basis points at its September meeting and then do so again in December. … READ MORE >