The encouraging May CPI data released by the Labor Department on Thursday is likely to be the first in a string of constructive inflation reports that will define policy normalization at the Fed. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
U.S. financial conditions update: A shift in structure and a new center of gravity
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index turned positive in January and has centered at 0,25 standard deviations above zero since March, indicating the normal level of risk priced into financial securities. … READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: Strong demand for labor continues its remarkable run in May
Labor demand continues to increase at a remarkably strong pace, which removes the prospect of a July rate hike and creates the sense that the Federal Reserve may fall further behind other central banks as they pivot to lower rates. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Dot plot to imply two rate cuts this year
We expect the Federal Open Market Committee to keep its policy rate unchanged between a rate of 5.25% and 5.5% at its meeting next week. … READ MORE >
The case for rate cuts: Read our chief economist’s op-ed in Barron’s
The recent rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank are just the beginning of a global shift to growth-oriented monetary policies, RSM’s chief economist Joe Brusuelas wrote in Barron’s in April. … READ MORE >
Spending cools more than expected as Fed contemplates rate cuts
American consumers pulled back in April as a sign of elevated interest rates weighing further on overall demand as the pandemic fiscal supports wane. … READ MORE >
GDP and inflation grew slower than earlier estimates
GDP was revised down to 1.3% from 1.6% earlier, while personal consumption was revised down to 2.0% from 2.5%, according to Commerce Department data released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
Global central bank outlook: Reducing rates to bolster growth
With disinflation having taken hold around the world, it is time for central banks to reduce their restrictive policy rates to promote demand and growth. … READ MORE >
Consumer inflation expectations moderate in May
The University of Michigan reported on Friday that consumer sentiment and inflation expectations improved in the second half of May. … READ MORE >
U.S. new home sales miss forecasts amid rising mortgage rates
New home sales fell below estimates in April as mortgage rates surged to above 7%, the Census Bureau reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >