This overall slowing should result in the Federal Reserve’s reducing its federal funds policy rate by 25 basis points in September and December, which would put it a range between 4.75% and 5%. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Slower pace of hiring in June bolsters case for Fed rate cut
The June jobs report should send a signal to the Fed that with inflation sitting at 2.6%, conditions are aligning for a rate cut in September. … READ MORE >
Job openings rise as the labor market marches toward normalization
Labor demand remained strong in May, bolstering hirings during the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector weakens in June
As the Federal Reserve continues to hold rates at an elevated level, demand for manufacturing goods has been dampened for most of the year. … READ MORE >
June jobs report preview: Beveridge curve implies a balanced labor market as hiring cools
We think it will soon be time for the Fed to cut rates to avoid unnecessary damage to jobs and economic growth. … READ MORE >
Fed’s key inflation gauge continues to cool in May as income increases by 0.5%
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation continued to ease in May as the personal consumption expenditures Index remained unchanged on the month and rose by 2.6% from a year ago. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Malaise continues in June
The best that can be said about manufacturing activity in five regional Federal Reserve banks is that it has moved more-or-less sideways over the past three months. … READ MORE >
Slower growth raises prospect of a Fed rate cut
Economic growth appeared much softer in the first five months of the year following the release of key economic data on Thursday. … READ MORE >
U.S. harmonized index of consumer prices: A more accurate metric of disinflation?
Traditional measures of inflation don’t necessarily tell the full story of what is happening with pricing, especially in housing. That’s where other measures like the harmonized index of consumer prices are instructive … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation expectations are well anchored as Fed nears decision
Our read on the economy, hiring and the labor market suggests that the Fed can ease rates without dislodging well-anchored expectations and still establish price stability. … READ MORE >