Once the seasonal factors in January’s data faded away, overall spending at retail stores, restaurants and online remained solid as consumers continued to benefit from a strong labor market and growing incomes. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
FOMC preview: A status quo meeting
We anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 19 and 20 will maintain the status quo in its policies. … READ MORE >
February consumer price index: Sticky yet under control
Inflation remains below wage growth as real hourly wages increased by 1.1% on the month and on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Robust hiring continued in February
Sustained demand for labor in the American economy was on vivid display on Friday as the Labor Department reported that 275,000 jobs were created in February. … READ MORE >
Job openings inch down as economy stays on track for a soft landing
Job openings cooled in back-to-back months to 8.86 million in January with December’s figure revised down to 8.89 million from 9.03 million previously, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. … READ MORE >
Softer economic data helps ease inflation concerns
The softer data in manufacturing activities, construction spending and consumer sentiment at the beginning of the year should alleviate concerns regarding the rebound in inflation. … READ MORE >
January inflation and spending data implies more noise than trend
The Federal Reserve’s closely watched measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, continued to show strength in January, rising by 0.3% on the month and by 2.4% from a year ago. … READ MORE >
New home sales grew more slowly in January amid elevated mortgage rates
Sales of new homes grew 1.5% in January, much slower than the 7.2% increase in December, most likely because of elevated mortgage rates. … READ MORE >
Geopolitical tensions and risks to the inflation outlook
Just as inflation appeared to be coming under control in recent months, rising tensions in the Middle East have shaken this view and now represent the major risk to our economic and inflation outlooks. … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations remain remarkably well anchored
The Federal Reserve’s five-year inflation forward breakeven rate—a closely watched measure of inflation expectations—stands at 2.3%, below the cyclical peak of 2.67% posted on April 19, 2022. … READ MORE >