Sales of new homes grew 1.5% in January, much slower than the 7.2% increase in December, most likely because of elevated mortgage rates. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Geopolitical tensions and risks to the inflation outlook
Just as inflation appeared to be coming under control in recent months, rising tensions in the Middle East have shaken this view and now represent the major risk to our economic and inflation outlooks. … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations remain remarkably well anchored
The Federal Reserve’s five-year inflation forward breakeven rate—a closely watched measure of inflation expectations—stands at 2.3%, below the cyclical peak of 2.67% posted on April 19, 2022. … READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales fall in January as holiday hangover sets in
In a break from recent years, ,American consumers began the year on a weak note as retail sales fell 0.8% on a monthly basis in January, according to Census Bureau data. … READ MORE >
CPI: Fed to remain patient as real wages rise 1.4%
January’s data shows that inflation is continuing to ease even as wages increase on an inflation-adjusted basis—an undeniably positive development. … READ MORE >
Fed survey shows further improvement in financial conditions
The worst of monetary tightening for the financial market may be behind us, according to the latest quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey released by the Federal Reserve … READ MORE >
Service sector grows faster than expected in January
The ISM service data is another reason to believe the Federal Reserve should not rush cutting rates this year. … READ MORE >
Hiring accelerates in January as unemployment remains below 4%
The U.S. economy created 353,000 new jobs in January on the back of an upward revision to 333,000 from 216,000 in December. … READ MORE >
Productivity continues to rise in potential game changer for economy
The increase in productivity has most likely been a catalyst for both robust economic growth and disinflation over the past year. … READ MORE >
The Fed’s key wage gauge slows to lowest level since 2021
The overall index eased to 0.9% in the fourth quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from 1.1% in the previous quarter. … READ MORE >