For the first time in years, the risk premium has been positive, which is an important signal that interest rates are indeed returning to normal. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Blowout employment report is a win for the American real economy
The American economy added 336,000 jobs in September, far above forecasts and showing that the labor market has yet to ease. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims tick up in a still-tight labor market
New filings rose 2,000 to 207,000 for the week ending Sept. 30, lower than the median forecasts of 210,000. … READ MORE >
Chart of the Day: Falling oil and gas demand implies inflation relief
Falling wholesale gasoline prices imply a decline of 12% in retail gasoline prices in the coming weeks from its current level of $3.79 to roughly $3.34 per gallon. … READ MORE >
Job openings surge unexpectedly in August
Job openings defied expectations in August, rising to 9.6 million, mostly from a sharp increase of 409,000 in professional and business services. … READ MORE >
American consumers remain resilient as shutdown looms
Despite a rise in overall inflation because of higher oil prices, core inflation and spending volume remained soft in August. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims hold steady as pending home sales plunge
Initial jobless claims inched up by only 2,000 last week to 204,000, remaining below the pre-pandemic average, while pending home sales plunged by 7.1% in August. … READ MORE >
Housing prices set a record as consumer confidence dips
Housing prices set a record in July, according to the S&P CoreLogic Index, rising by 0.87% on a seasonally adjusted basis. August’s new home sales, however, dropped by a sharp 8.7%. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: No rate hike as Fed implies soft landing
The Fed maintained its policy rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% while revisions to its Summary of Economic Projections strongly imply that the central bank no longer expects a recession. … READ MORE >
Low core inflation should keep the Fed from hiking rates
While we expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, what its updated Summary of Economic Projections will look like remains less clear. … READ MORE >