For the first time since February 2022, the RSM US Financial Conditions Index has turned positive amid a robust economy, strong labor market, easing inflation and rising real wages. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Spending remains strong as a key inflation gauge declines toward Fed’s target
Inflation dynamics to close out last year strongly point to a near-term return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target amid a solid labor market, strong spending and real income gains. … READ MORE >
U.S. economy booms at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter
The U.S. economy last year expanded by a robust, above-trend pace of 3.1% and a fourth quarter pace on a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.3%. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment rises above expectations in January
Consumer sentiment rose in January to 78.8 from 69.7, much higher than the median consensus forecast of 70.1. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims and housing starts post upside surprises
Filings for jobless benefits fell last week to the lowest level in 16 months, a testament for how resilient the labor market continues to be. … READ MORE >
Retail sales and industrial production point to a strong end of the year
Retail sales blowing past expectations while industrial production volume stayed solid, according to government data released Wednesday. … READ MORE >
The price of eggs and public sentiment
While inflation continues to recede, higher prices continue to affect household finances, causing the public to evaluate the economy as sour. … READ MORE >
December CPI: Sticky service and housing prices illustrate the difficult last mile in inflation fight
Despite a three-month annualized top-line inflation pace of 1.8% and a six-month rate of 3.3%, prices in the service sector, which comprises 62% of the overall index, increased by 5% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Rate normalization and the return of risk
Conditions are ripe for the yield curve to continue to normalize as the long end moves to a range between 4% and 4.25%. … READ MORE >
December employment report caps an extraordinary year of 2.7 million jobs added
The U.S. economy added 216,000 jobs in December, closing out an extraordinary year that saw an increase of 2.7 million in total employment and a record 167 million Americans employed. … READ MORE >