A look at U.S. wage growth ahead of the November U.S. jobs report to be released today should translate to a gain of 3.9% on a year-ago basis. We expect a net change in total employment of 220,000 positions, a 4.1% unemployment rate and a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings. Solid job growth in ... READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Morning market minute: Return of the term premium on Treasury notes
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is trading near 4.20%, which was the RSM year-end target, and has averaged 4.18% for the year through Dec. 3. And the yields are set to go higher. An economy with growth that could approach 3% with full employment, coupled with expectations of expansionary fiscal ... READ MORE >
October job openings surge as labor market shows resilience
The sharp increase in job openings in October reaffirmed our call that the weaknesses of recent months were short-lived. Most of the gains in vacancies came from the South, which was hit by Hurricane Milton. Total job openings in October rose to 7.74 million from 7.37 million, the Bureau of Labor ... READ MORE >
Inflation proving stubborn as major policy changes await
A robust 0.4% increase in personal spending and a 0.6% increase in personal income in October underscore just how strong the economy and households have been ahead of the critical holiday spending season. But at the same time, the strong spending and income data, released on Wednesday by the Commerce ... READ MORE >
Post-election outlook: A webinar from RSM US and U.S. Chamber of Commerce
With the results of the election now in, investors and firm managers are looking ahead to the policies of a second Trump administration and a changed Congress. Join RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President Neil Bradley as they discuss the economic ... READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits fall in October as hurricanes take a toll
Housing starts and building permits in the United States fell in October for the second straight month largely because of the two hurricanes in the South and the recent rebound in mortgage rates. Housing starts, a key indicator of residential real estate performance within gross domestic product, ... READ MORE >
The U.S. economic year ahead: Regime change, growth and rising interest rates
Since the American economy emerged from the shocks of the pandemic, we have made the case that it is undergoing a fundamental structural change. The end of historically low interest rates, the adoption of policies aimed at bolstering vital national industries and the influx of foreign capital have all ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales decelerated in October
Retail sales growth was softer in October, following a stronger-than-expected September report, which had sharp upward revisions, the Census Bureau reported on Friday. The mixed results should not change the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate in December. That probability has ... READ MORE >
Hurricanes and sticky service and housing prices propped up inflation in October
The disinflationary trend that has worked its way through the economy for much of the year modestly abated in October as the top-line consumer price index increased by 0.2% and the core rose by 0.3% on a monthly basis. On an annual basis, those figures increased by 2.6% and 3.3%, ... READ MORE >
Fed cuts rate by a quarter point ahead of a possible pause
The Federal Open Market Committee reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. Slowing inflation and strong productivity gains imply that the Fed has ample room to keep cutting rates next year. The major takeaway from the policy statement is ... READ MORE >