Inflation picked up in June, driven largely by tariffs, according to the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
The Fed holds rates steady as two board members dissent
The OMC held its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% on Wednesday as it slightly opened the door to a rate cut this fall., … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Stagflation and dissent at the FOMC
We expect the federal funds rate to remain in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at the FOMC meeting this week and we do not expect Chairman Jerome Powell to imply that a September rate cut is in the cards either. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Demand-side inflation implies Fed still has work to do
When the consumer price index for June is released on Tuesday, we expect a top-line monthly increase of 0.3% and 0.2% on the core, which will translate to 2.6% year-over-year increase and 2.9% on the core. … READ MORE >
U.S. economic outlook: Stagflation lite to describe second half
We now expect growth to slow to 1.1% this year, inflation to rise above 3% and a 4.4% unemployment rate. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Our year-end 10-year rate forecast
We expect the 10-year yield to remain in a range between 4% and 4.5% amid of elevated volatility and now expect it to finish the year near 4.35% with risk of a lower rate. … READ MORE >
Policy uncertainty putting U.S. international investment position at risk
Foreign investment in U.S. financial securities and direct investment in its corporations are outstripping U.S. holdings of foreign assets by $26 trillion … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Global central bank outlook
Divergence figures to be the primary theme in global central banking during the final six months of the year as policymakers around the world adjust to higher American tariffs. … READ MORE >
Global central bank outlook: Divergent paths on rates
Divergence figures to be the primary theme in global central banking during the final six months of the year as policymakers around the world adjust to higher American tariffs. … READ MORE >
Cooler spending and inflation data reflect slowing economy
May income, spending and inflation data points toward a consumer adjusting to a more challenging economic environment and should dampen talk of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July or September. … READ MORE >