Recent events have caused a reset of investor expectations regarding what and when the Federal Reserve’s next move will be. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Market Minute: Warsh will face a searing credibility test
How will the new Fed chair balance his stated receptiveness to rate cuts with the recent rise in inflation? … READ MORE >
Inflation heats up as stress on households grows
The personal consumption expenditures index arrived hot for the second straight month in April while inflation-adjusted spending cooled. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: A new inflation regime awaits Warsh
Five-year breakevens since Feb. 27 have increased from 2.445% to 2.72%, the 10-year from 2.25% to 2.5% and the 30-year from 2.19% to 2.3%. … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as debate intensifies
The Federal Open Market Committee maintained its policy rate between 3.5% and 3.75% on Wednesday amid vigorous debate. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: FOMC preview and Powell’s big decision
We expect the Federal Reserve to keep its federal funds policy rate in a range between 3.5% and 3.75% on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The Fed’s SOMA holdings and the challenge of balance sheet run-off
The System Open Market Account’s weighted average years to maturity is 14.56 years—which is heavily weighted to long-term securities. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Kevin Warsh and Fed independence
The nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair will face pointed questions before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation data shows a deteriorating economy on edge of war
A mix of declining inflation-adjusted income growth, a reliance upon savings and credit to fund spending and a 3.7% increase on a three-month annualized pace in core inflation does not paint a flattering portrait of an economy in February, on the edge of war. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Two inflation reports, one economy
We expect that the top-line CPI for March will increase by a minimum of 1% on the month, driven by higher fuel costs, and 3.5% from a year ago. … READ MORE >