We expect the Federal Reserve to keep its federal funds policy rate in a range between 3.5% and 3.75% on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Market Minute: The Fed’s SOMA holdings and the challenge of balance sheet run-off
The System Open Market Account’s weighted average years to maturity is 14.56 years—which is heavily weighted to long-term securities. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Kevin Warsh and Fed independence
The nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair will face pointed questions before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation data shows a deteriorating economy on edge of war
A mix of declining inflation-adjusted income growth, a reliance upon savings and credit to fund spending and a 3.7% increase on a three-month annualized pace in core inflation does not paint a flattering portrait of an economy in February, on the edge of war. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Two inflation reports, one economy
We expect that the top-line CPI for March will increase by a minimum of 1% on the month, driven by higher fuel costs, and 3.5% from a year ago. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Don’t ignore short-term inflation expectations
Since the outbreak of the war in Iran, inflation expectations for the year ahead have spiked to 5%. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds interest rate again amid global economic disruptions
The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate amid domestic economic slack and wider disruptions due to the ongoing war in the Middle East. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Fed rate cuts on hold as inflation risks mount
Expect the Fed to hold rates steady on Wednesday while raising its inflation forecast and reducing its estimates for growth and employment. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation data shows the calm before the storm
On a month-over-month basis, the top-line PCE index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, increased by 0.3%, with the core rate excluding food and energy rising by 0.4%. … READ MORE >
Is Kevin Warsh a man for all seasons, or a chameleon?
RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas offered his thoughts on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to become the next Federal Reserve chair. … READ MORE >