We are updating our FOMC rate forecast to expect one 25 basis-point rate cut this year, either at the July or September meeting. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Fed puts rate cuts on pause until further notice
Should the economy outperform this year, then the risk is not around rate cuts but rather no cut at all or even a late-year increase. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada holds interest rate again—and may stay put this year
The Bank of Canada maintained its key interest rate at 2.25 per cent. At this juncture—all things being equal—we do not expect the central bank to change its policy rate this year. … READ MORE >
Get the popcorn ready for a prime-time FOMC meeting
While the FOMC is expected to keep its policy rate between a range of 3.5% and 3.75%, the real action will be at the news conference afterward. … READ MORE >
Income and spending data suggests no rate cuts in first quarter
Income advanced at a 0.3% pace nominally and also on an inflation-adjusted basis in November while spending increased by 0.5%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The rising term premium on the 10-year Treasury
The term premium turned positive in early November and increased to more than 0.7 percentage points in January. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Fed independence and the sum of all fears
Today, the sum of all fears among central bankers and economists can in large part be traced to the mistakes of the Arthur Burns era at the Fed. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Transmission of monetary policy to the real economy
When the fiscal authority is at odds with monetary authority, then the transmission mechanism starts to break down. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The risks in Treasury’s shift to T-bills
In 2025, 84% of the government’s debt issuance was made up of Treasury bills with maturities of 12 months or less, the highest ratio since the financial crisis. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: When the Fed’s reserves go from abundant to ample
Those who wish to return to the way things were before the financial crisis, before the Fed expanded its balance sheet, are living in a fantasy world. … READ MORE >