Despite the labor market’s resilience and persistently low claims compared to historical norms, the steady increases in claims since late last year are ringing alarm bells. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Initial jobless claims highest since November 2021
Initial jobless claims last week remained unchanged at 264,000, a figure that exceeded expectations and suggested that the robust labor market is softening. … READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits spike in May as sentiment improves
There were 1.6 million new housing starts in May—the most in two years and a 21.7% increase from the previous month. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment gains on improving inflation expectations
What is most notable from Friday’s consumer sentiment data is the plunge in year-ahead inflation expectations to 3.3% from 4.2%, an enouraging sign for the Fed in its effort to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
Retail sales rise more than expected amid labor market softening
Retail sales rose more than expected in May, pointing to continued resilience in spending that might push a recession further down the road. The strong sales figure, though, was reported as layoffs continued to increase. … READ MORE >
Fed pauses rate hikes while signaling a tightening bias
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday kept its policy rate in a range between 5% and 5.25% while signaling that it will most likely hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at least twice before the end of the year. … READ MORE >
Inflation relief in the pipeline as food, gas and service prices ease
Top-line U.S. inflation is moving back toward levels where it is appropriate for the Federal Reserve to pause in its efforts to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
Interest rate outlook: Debt ceiling standoff raised the cost of doing business
The Treasury’s need to sell $1.1 trillion in debt along with a strong probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike or two will push interest rates higher, raising the cost of doing business. … READ MORE >
The wealth effect and the Great Resignation
As household balance sheets have ballooned for older workers, many have retired. The implications are only now beginning to be understood. … READ MORE >
Economy added 339,000 jobs in blowout May employment report
The unemployment rate increased to 3.7% as workers rejoined the labor force. … READ MORE >