We expect a net change in total employment of 310,000 when the jobs data for February is released on Friday, with many of the gains attributable to seasonal fluctuations in hiring. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index shows a continuing slowdown
At 1.9 standard deviations below normal, our proprietary index implies a manufacturing sector set to lead the overall economy into a slowdown. … READ MORE >
Business spending on equipment rose in January
Investments in business equipment posted a sharp rebound in January after two consecutive months of disappointing declines. … READ MORE >
Bond market shows a shift in inflation expectations
The forward market now anticipates a 5.25% terminal rate for the federal funds rate at the Fed’s June meeting and then a gradual unwinding just below 4% in two years. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims inch down amid tight labor market
New filings for jobless benefits inched down last week to 192,000, remaining below the pre-pandemic level where they have been since December. … READ MORE >
Jobs and inflation data show a still-strong economy
Both producer inflation and jobless claims came in stronger than expected in the most recent government reports released on Thursday. The data adds further pressure on the Federal Reserve as it aims to steer the economy toward a soft landing. … READ MORE >
Understanding the facts in the debt ceiling debate
As the stand-off over raising the nation’s debt ceiling drags on, a rational discussion of the issues at play has often been lost amid the political rhetoric. We explain some of the basic facts. … READ MORE >
Inflation grew faster in January, bolstering the case for more rate hikes
January’s Consumer Price Index increased by 0.5% on the month, rising from a 0.1% increase in December, and by 6.4% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Fed’s survey of loan officers points to caution in the middle market
Even as financial conditions have eased in recent months, helping to spur a rally in equity markets, one area of America’s real economy has been flashing warning signs: the commercial and industrial loan market. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims rise, but remain below pre-pandemic level
New filings for unemployment benefits increased by 7.1% to 196,000 for the week ending Feb. 4, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >