The RSM US Financial Conditions Index has moved to only 0.4 standard deviations below normal but corporate debt issuance remains weighed down by rate hikes and the risk of a recession. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Blowout January jobs report likely exaggerates hiring
Seasonal noise always presents problems when estimating the January jobs picture at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the first employment estimate of the year serves as a useful reminder not to overinterpret one report. The blowout 517,000-job increase in total employment for January, reported by the Labor Department … … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain below the pre-pandemic level
New filings for jobless benefits continued to defy market expectations, falling to 183,000 last week from 186,000 a week earlier. … READ MORE >
Fed hikes rates by 25 basis points as it approaches peak
The central bank hiked its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%, its eighth straight increase, though lower than the recent increases. … READ MORE >
Job openings rise again in December, adding to pressure on the Fed
The number of job vacancies jumped to 11 million in December from 10.4 million. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Slowdown continues
The downturn in manufacturing in the United States continued in December and January, according to the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index. … READ MORE >
Labor costs slow, setting the stage for smaller Fed rate hike
The index showed that labor cost growth fell to 1.0% on a quarterly basis, and to 5.1% on a year-ago basis for all workers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Cost Index released on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Fed to slow pace of rate hikes to 25 basis points
Our base case remains that the Federal Reserve’s policy rate will peak between 5% and 5.25% and stay there until early next year. … READ MORE >
American consumers grow more cautious as spending falls
Personal spending fell by 0.2% in dollar terms in December and by 0.3% after adjusting for inflation, which rose by 0.1% on the month. … READ MORE >
U.S. GDP: Resilient growth closes out a challenging year
A resilient American economy grew by 2.9% during the final three months of last year because of a strong increase in demand for services by consumers, fixed business investment and inventory restocking. … READ MORE >