The Institute for Supply Management’s service index rose in November as business activities increased on the month. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
U.S. economic outlook: Recession on the horizon
Our baseline forecast for the American economy next year calls for a mild recession by the second half of the year as the impact of higher interest rates sets in. … READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: Rising wages pose a problem as hiring remains strong
average hourly earnings increased by 5.1% on a year-ago basis and by 0.6% on the month in addition to being revised higher in October. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector nears contraction
The ISM’s manufacturing index slowed to 49%, barely above the contraction threshold at 48.7%. It was the third straight decline as demand for manufactured goods stalled. … READ MORE >
Job openings and quits continue to moderate
There remained 1.7 job vacancies per unemployed worker, significantly higher than 2019’s average of 1.2. … READ MORE >
The post-pandemic era and the end of hyper-globalization
The American economy is in the midst of a long-lasting structural change following the severe shocks unleashed by the pandemic. … READ MORE >
RSM US Supply Chain Index returns to pre-pandemic level
Our RSM US Supply Chain Index pointed to supply efficiency for the fourth month in a row, reaching 0.49 standard deviations above neutral in October. … READ MORE >
Housing starts and initial jobless claims give Fed mixed signals
The housing market continued to cool, but not the labor market, government data showed. … READ MORE >
Financial conditions update: Rising risks and tightening markets
Despite a strong bounce in U.S. financial markets following better-than-anticipated inflation data for October, financial conditions remain tight. … READ MORE >
How high will interest rates go?
We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate above 5% in the near term while at the same time reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. … READ MORE >