To reduce inflation to acceptable levels, it will be necessary to destroy between 1.7 million and 5.3 million jobs. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Powell at Jackson Hole: From era of abundance to one of insufficient supply
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was blunt in his remarks at Jackson Hole, Wyo.: “Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth.” … READ MORE >
Better-than-expected GDP and jobless claims push back recession fear
The decline in U.S. gross domestic product growth in the second quarter was less than previously estimated, and jobless claims fell by 0.,8%. … READ MORE >
Expectations at the end of business cycles
The Federal Reserve has a blunt yet effective instrument to fight inflation: raising the federal funds rate. But using it requires a delicate balancing act. We offer a snapshot of what to look for as the economic cycle plays out. … READ MORE >
Jackson Hole preview: Powell to set tone for next few years
Policymakers, investors and firms should prepare for a regime change in inflation that will require tighter monetary policy ahead as the central bank lifts the policy rate to 4% by the end of the year. … READ MORE >
U.S. July employment report: A recession is not yet at hand
Economies in recession do not produce 528,000 jobs in a given month and have 3.5% unemployment rates. Since January, total employment has increased by 3.3 million jobs and the unemployment rate has declined from 4% to 3.5%. With such a robust labor market, claims that the economy is in recession … … READ MORE >
Labor force dynamics: 60,000 jobs per month are needed to keep the jobless rate near 4.4%
Long-run changes in the labor force have slowed its growth and are likely to result in a shortage of workers even if the economy falls into recession. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: Fed hikes policy rate by 75 basis points
At this critical juncture, with the policy rate residing in neutral terrain, it is natural for the Fed to adjust its rhetoric as it considers next steps. … READ MORE >
Unexpectedly strong durable goods orders and trade data temper recession concerns
Durable goods orders and goods trade deficit in June beat expectations, according to data released Wednesday, tempering recession concerns before the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate hike later in the day. … READ MORE >
Monetary policy tightening, the bond market and the business cycle
Economic shocks including inflation, interest rate increases and energy market turmoil are hitting the global economy and showing up in fixed income markets. … READ MORE >