The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index declined by a sharp 5.2 points to 54.7 in the first half of November, slightly above the all-time low in June. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing.
We estimate that there is an approximately 18-month lag between changes in housing prices and those in the housing inflation components. … READ MORE >
U.S. October CPI: Inflation still high, but relief on the horizon
U.S. inflation is most likely approaching an inflection point where the central bank can begin considering a pause in its efforts to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
Uncertainty, policy choices and the prospects for middle market investment
Stubbornly high inflation and rising interest rates are creating a pervasive sense of uncertainty among business owners and investors that has left policymakers with few good options. … READ MORE >
U.S. October jobs report: Strong growth as labor market remains tight
Total employment increased by 261,000 jobs in October, which brought the total gain in employment this year to 4 million positions. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims inch down amid tight labor market
New filings for jobless benefits inched down by 1,000 last week from 218,000, remaining near their historical lows, according to government data released Thursday. … READ MORE >
Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points as it prepares to slow pace of hikes
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 3.75% and 4% as it hinted at slowing the pace of its hikes. … READ MORE >
Job openings and manufacturing production grow more than expected
Job openings came in hotter than expected in September, suggesting that the imbalance in the labor market will take longer to resolve than originally anticipated. … READ MORE >
Inflation persists as spending rebounds strongly in September
Friday’s macro data drop continued to require the Federal Reserve to have its foot on the pedal: while inflation data came out slightly better than expected, the key wage inflation metric—the employment cost index—remained elevated, according to the Labor Department. On top of that, spending was much better than expected in September together with an upward revision to August’s print. That means the economy can absorb more monetary tightening. … READ MORE >
As turmoil grows, foreign banks and investors flock to the dollar
Whether it is the purchase of short-term Treasury notes, deposits in U.S. financial institutions or a use of the Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase facility, investors are in a flight to safety … READ MORE >