New claims inched down by only 0.9% last week, to 229,000, from an upwardly revised 231,000 in the prior week. The pre-pandemic level in 2019 was 218,000. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Midyear update: An economy on knife’s edge as inflation bites
The supply, demand and energy shocks cascading through the American economy are sufficient to cause an end to the business cycle over the next six months. … READ MORE >
Changes in Fed policy and their impact on the economy
The Federal Reserve’s changes to short-term interest rates will affect the stock of money, which directly determines the direction of the real economy, output and employment. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Industrial production hits a record amid signs of a slowdown
Industrial production in the United States hit a record in May, but signs of a coming economic slowdown emerged in the report released by the Federal Reserve on Friday. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: U.S. housing starts and permits plunge
Housing starts fell by 14.4% to 1.549 million on an annualized basis in May, the lowest point in more than a year. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims exceed pre-pandemic level for second straight week
There were 229,000 new jobless claims for the week ending June 11, down slightly from an upwardly revised 232,000 in the prior week. … READ MORE >
Fed announces largest rate hike in nearly three decades as it seeks to restore price stability
The Federal Reserve lifted its federal funds policy rate to a range between 1.5% and 1.75% on Wednesday as it moves to restore price stability over the medium term. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: U.S. producer inflation remained elevated
The report adds pressure on the Federal Reserve, which is considering more aggressive measures to tame inflation. … READ MORE >
Updated FOMC call: Fed to hike policy rate by 75 basis points
Based on movements inside the rate markets, quickly changing inflation expectations and a rattled investor class, we now expect the Federal Reserve on Wednesday to raise its policy rate by 75 basis points to a range between 1.25% and 1.50%. … READ MORE >
Bond market update: Inflation’s toll on returns, investment and growth
Inflation is now the most significant factor in investment decisions. Until the Federal Reserve creates the conditions approximating price stability, the economy will remain at risk. … READ MORE >