The Federal Reserve is preparing to launch the next phase of its policy normalization by drawing down its balance sheet as soon as May to boost rates out along the maturity spectrum. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
RSM U.S. Financial Conditions Index: Pricing in the cost of uncertainty
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index remains more than 0.2 standard deviations below normal. This is a indication that investors are requiring additional compensation for the risk of lending and the increased cost of investing in an environment of heightened uncertainty. … READ MORE >
U.S. March jobs report: American labor market remains red hot
The American labor market remains red hot as the employment-to-population ratio among prime-age workers surged to 80.0% in March, up from 79.5% in February. … READ MORE >
A key inflation gauge surged in February, dampening spending
The likelihood of a 50 basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in May increased on Thursday as the government reported that a key inflation gauge continued to surge in February. … READ MORE >
What is the yield curve telling us?
Fears of an imminent recession are somewhat overblown. A closer look at the different components of the yield curve reveals a nuanced picture of the economic outlook … READ MORE >
Durable goods orders decline amid rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainties
Durable goods orders declined for the first time in five months in February because of geopolitical uncertainties and the anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike since 2018. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: New home sales drop amid rising rates
New home sales posted the second consecutive month of decline in February as elevated prices and rising mortgage rates deterred buyers. … READ MORE >
Industrial production advanced, and oil and coal outputs ramped up amid rising prices
Industrial production grew at a slower rate in February as utility outputs dropped back down from an unusually cold January. Manufacturing took the driver seat on the month, despite a sharp drop in auto production. … READ MORE >
Real estate to remain strong in face of interest rate bump
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday boosted interest rates by a quarter percentage point, leaving many landlords and real estate fund managers to wonder how the increase will affect their operations and bottom line. Fortunately, no one needs to ring the alarm. With the cost of capital remaining low, continued interest in real estate from both domestic and foreign investors, and robust demand for sectors such as housing and industrial, real estate should continue to see positive trends despite the near-term interest rate hike. … READ MORE >
FOMC’s policy decision: Rate hike, balance sheet reduction, revise down forecast, repeat
Policy normalization at the Federal Reserve took a giant step forward on Wednesday as the Federal Open Market Committee hiked the federal funds rate by 25 basis points while slashing its growth forecast and increasing its estimate of inflation. … READ MORE >