Service inflation and rents, though, are still advancing a well above 4%, which in conjunction with slowing growth does not bode well for the economy … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Market minute: Risk of stagnation, stagflation and slower growth
Despite the trading community pricing in three rate cuts this year, employment, wage and inflation data imply a Fed that may be reluctant to reduce rates into an economy that is slowing amid sticky inflation. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Concern over government shutdown showing up in money markets
The one-month T-bill rate of 4.29% is now below the 4.30% three-month rate and about to breach the Federal Reserve’s repo-facility award rate of 4.25%. … READ MORE >
Solid labor demand persists as U.S. economy adds 151,000 jobs in February
The American economy added 151,000 jobs in February, a sign that demand for labor remains solid amid the significant policy changes in Washington. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Job growth, unemployment and federal contractors
We expect the U.S. jobs report for February to show a net increase in employment of 160,000 and an unemployment rate of 4%. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Goods deflation, food inflation and a lack of exemptions
Consumers face the possibility of double-digit increases in many grocery items given the quantity of fruit and vegetables imported from those two countries. … READ MORE >
U.S. tariffs and their impact on growth and inflation
While it is too early to quantify the tariffs’ overall impact, a rough estimate implies between a 0.5% and 0.75% drag on growth this year and a one-time 0.6% increase in prices. … READ MORE >
U.S. tariffs promise volatility, recession for Canada
Canada’s economic landscape is set to change dramatically as U.S. tariffs take effect. A recession is anticipated this year if all measures remain in place. … READ MORE >
January PCE index: Strong income gains amid elevated inflation
Underlying inflation appears to have flattened out near 2.5% on an annual basis with service sector costs rising at a 3.4% rate. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Is the fight against PCE inflation like waiting for Godot?
The January PCE inflation report, to be released Friday, will most likely show a 0.3% top-line increase on the month and a 2.5% increase from one year ago. … READ MORE >