The fall in initial jobless claims last week aligns with a strong labor market, despite the recent impact of Hurricane Milton. Total initial claims dropped to 227,000 from 242,000 for the week ending Oct. 18, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. Florida’s new filings for claims spiked last week, ... READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Housing starts and permits ease in September
Housing starts and building permits pulled back in September after a red-hot August, suggesting that the road to a housing market rebound won’t be smooth, even as interest rates drop. The market remains demand-driven, with the current and future supply of new homes staying below the threshold for a ... READ MORE >
September retail sales top forecasts
American consumers remained upbeat about the economy in September as spending at retail stores and online exceeded consensus forecasts. Retail sales for all items increased by 0.4% while the control group grew by 0.7% in September. Our forecasts had called for a 0.5% increase for both numbers, so the ... READ MORE >
American outperformance in the global economy
One of the more underdiscussed economic developments following the shocks of the pandemic has been the outperformance of the United States economy compared with its G-7 peers. Over the past eight quarters, the American economy has grown at a 2.9% annualized pace and is on track to grow at or above ... READ MORE >
Producer price index implies further disinflation
The lower-than-expected producer inflation report released on Friday should offset some of the upside surprises from the consumer inflation data released on Thursday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, final demand inflation was unchanged in September, while the core reading grew more slowly ... READ MORE >
U.S. CPI: Further evidence of disinflation supports another rate cut
Further evidence of disinflation and the return of price stability are the primary takeaways from the inflation data released on Thursday as the consumer price index increased by 0.2% in September and by 2.4% on a year-ago basis. The primary catalysts for the modest increase in top-line inflation ... READ MORE >
When money has a price: How the higher cost of capital is affecting America’s real economy
For much of the past two decades, firms, investors and policymakers lived off the easy money of historically low interest rates. That era has ended. Short of another black swan event, it is not coming back. Business models built around zero interest rates—and services firms with exposure to those ... READ MORE >
October surprise: U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September as unemployment fell to 4.1%
The U.S. economy generated 254,000 jobs in September, exceeding forecasts, and the unemployment rate declined to 4.1% as growth continues to barrel along at or above a 3% pace. When taken out to three digits, the jobless rate was 4.051%, which means it narrowly missed the Federal Reserve’s 4% ... READ MORE >
Service sector showed fastest growth in nearly two years
The significant increase in service activities in September was an encouraging surprise given the growing concerns over slowing growth. The Institute for Supply Management said on Thursday that its service sector index grew to 54.9 in September from 51.5 in August. That was the fastest pace of growth ... READ MORE >
Why the labor market is stronger than the unemployment rate indicates
At least 19% of the rise in the unemployment rate since last year can be explained by the increase in the labor supply. Since 2021, the return of workers to the labor force, in addition to immigration and population growth, has been a key driver of overall unemployment in the United States. Even though ... READ MORE >