We are now fully confident that the American economy will move back above the pre-pandemic level of activity in the current quarter. Given the size of the shock to the real economy, and the depth and breadth of the crisis, this recovery is remarkable. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Interest rate update: The changing yield landscape, in eight charts
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has moved to 1.55%, within 50 basis points of already low pre-pandemic rates. While anything near 1.60% is better than the 0.60% observed last year, we expect the yield to rise to 1.9% at the end of the year. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: You can’t always get what you want
The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision on the federal funds rate Wednesday will for the most part be a non-market-moving event, with the Federal Reserve looking to convey a consistent outlook on the direction of policy and rates. … READ MORE >
American peak growth? Here is some much-needed context
One of the stories driving conversation today in financial markets, especially among fixed-income participants, is the idea that U.S. growth has peaked and that is why bond yields have declined recently. This discussion needs some context. … READ MORE >
Reimagining redevelopment and innovation: A U.S. infrastructure bank
We are proposing the development of an independent infrastructure bank that would operate as the fiscal equivalent of the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve to end supplemental leverage ratio capital break
The Federal Reserve announced on Friday that it would not extend an important rule accommodation put in place last spring that helped banks continue to lend to small and medium-size businesses as the economic effects of the pandemic took hold. … READ MORE >
Weekly jobless claims: A grim anniversary as claims rise to 770,000
Top-line initial claims for unemployment benefits increased to 770,000 versus an expected decline to 700,000 for the week ending March 13, according to government data released Thursday. … READ MORE >
FOMC meeting comment: Welcome to the boomtown
The onset of recovery in the U.S. economy and the growing likelihood of a robust expansion this year and next resulted in a significant upgrade of the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections forecast through 2023. … READ MORE >
Short-term rates and economic expansion at risk without Fed’s SLR extension
With the economic recovery still in its early stages, an important component of the Federal Reserve’s response to the economic collapse last spring is in danger of expiring. … READ MORE >
Making sense of inflation: What we can learn from post-recession recoveries
It can take an average of 27 months after a recession for inflation to return to normal as sustained economic growth is attained and inflation reaches its assumed 2% target. This implies that some of the recent concerns around inflation are premature. … READ MORE >