The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday said it had retained its accommodative policy stance by keeping the federal funds rate in a range between 1.5% and 1.75%. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Expect the Fed to stick to the script
We expect the Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate in a range between 1.50% and 1.75% at the December FOMC meeting. The major interest of investors and policymakers will naturally be the movement in the dot plot, which we expect to move into alignment with the current policy rate, with 2020 to the midpoint of the current target range near 1.62%. … READ MORE >
The Fed walked a tightrope in cutting rates, and succeeded
The Fed’s careful balancing act of making insurance cuts to guard against global economic headwinds and normalize the yield curve without committing to extended cuts seems to have now gained acceptance with the markets. The entire yield curve has shifted lower since the July meeting because of the three rate cuts made this year. … READ MORE >
October US employment report: solid trend in hiring continues
The October report continues to imply a period of slower hiring ahead, excluding temporary census workers compared to one year ago which is in line with the overall slower pace of economic activity. The bottom line of the October U.S. employment report is that there is sufficient job creation and wage gains to support growth near the long-term trend of 1.8 % and keep the U.S. some distance from a total economic downturn. … READ MORE >
Fed cuts interest rate, but does not commit to more
The Federal Reserve reduced its targeted federal funds rate by a quarter point to a range between 1.5 and 1.75 percent at its October meeting Wednesday. In its policy statement, the committee removed the phrase “act as appropriate,” possibly opening the door to taking a wait-and-see approach to additional rate cuts. The change to the policy statement notes the central bank will monitor incoming information as it “assesses the appropriate path” of rates. … READ MORE >
Expect the Fed to cut its target rate by a quarter point
We expect the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate this week by 25 basis points to a range between 1.50% to 1.75%. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: ‘Catch-22’ in a monetary context
Demands by market actors for accommodative policy linked to a diminished global and domestic economic outlook resulted in a reduction in the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range between 1.75% and 2%. In our estimation, this is likely not the final rate cut of 2019 by a central bank clearly concerned with the direction of trade policy, a modest exogenous supply shock in oil markets and political pressure from the executive branch to reduce rates. … READ MORE >
Fed preview: Difficulty and divided FOMC
Monetary policy is difficult under the best of circumstances. The cross currents of the trade war, a modest exogenous supply shock in oil markets, political pressure from the executive branch to reduce interest rates are among the factors that make the upcoming FOMC meeting one of the more challenging policy decisions in some time. … READ MORE >
Low rate environment poses challenge for banks
The Fed recently cut its lending rate by 25 basis points and is expected to cut again later this year. Meanwhile, as longer-term rates continue to decline, banks will be faced with further pressure on their net interest margins. … READ MORE >
FOMC Preview: Insurance against a greater pace of economic deceleration
A sagging global economy dragged down by a trade war and a domestic manufacturing sector on the edge of contraction are sufficient risks to warrant a 25-basis-point-reduction in the federal funds rate to 2% to 2.25% percent when the Federal Open Market Committee concludes its policy meeting on Wednesday. … READ MORE >