Total initial claims dropped to 227,000 from 242,000 for the week ending Oct. 18, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Housing starts and permits ease in September
September’s housing starts came in at 1.35 million, down 0.5% from August, while building permits, a proxy for future projects, fell 2.9% to 1.4 million. … READ MORE >
September retail sales top forecasts
Retail sales for all items increased by 0.4% while the control group grew by 0.7% in September. … READ MORE >
American outperformance in the global economy
The U.S. economy is outperforming in growth and employment, and in controlling inflation, without causing the economy to fall into an extended period of slow growth. It’s a remarkable policy achievement. … READ MORE >
Producer price index implies further disinflation
The lower-than-expected producer inflation report released on Friday should offset some of the upside surprises from the consumer inflation data released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
U.S. CPI: Further evidence of disinflation supports another rate cut
We expect the Fed to keep its eyes on preserving full employment amid general price stability, which points to a further reduction in interest rates throughout the remainder of the year … READ MORE >
When money has a price: How the higher cost of capital is affecting America’s real economy
Business models built around zero interest rates—and services firms with exposure to those businesses—are adapting to the return of a positive term premium in the price of money. … READ MORE >
October surprise: U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September as unemployment fell to 4.1%
The jobs data released Friday strongly suggests that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points on Nov. 7 at its next meeting. … READ MORE >
Service sector showed fastest growth in nearly two years
The Institute for Supply Management’s service sector index grew to 54.9 in September from 51.5 in August. … READ MORE >
Why the labor market is stronger than the unemployment rate indicates
At least 19% of the increase in the unemployment rate from 2023 to 2024 can be explained by the increase in labor supply. Since 2021, the return of workers to the labor force, in addition to new additions from immigration and population growth, has been a key driver of overall unemployment in the U.S. … READ MORE >