More than 7.6 million Americans have been infected by the novel coronavirus as of the first weekend of October, according to statistics site Worldometer. The rate of new infections is increasing again, reaching 43,600 cases per day (see the first figure below) with 100,000 new cases reported in the past ... READ MORE >
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Tracking the spread of coronavirus: Prelude to the cooler months
There has been a 20% increase in the number of states reporting a rise in coronavirus cases since a week ago – an unfortunate but not unexpected trend. We are entering the colder months – when infections are expected to rise as people move inside – and we have yet to lower the rate of infection to the ... READ MORE >
Tracking the spread of COVID-19: A resurgent virus, and a grim milestone
Following a late-summer lull in the coronavirus pandemic, the rate of infections has resumed its increase in the United States and is poised to intensify in the coming weeks, RSM’s modeling shows. This comes as the number of coronavirus deaths will soon pass a grim milestone: 200,000 in the United ... READ MORE >
Rational business and investment planning during an irrational pandemic
If there were any remaining doubts that the pandemic was real or that it would suddenly disappear into the warm summer air, the recent headlines should have dispelled them. In fact, 60% of the 4.4 million reported infections have occurred after Memorial Day, while the number of deaths attributed to ... READ MORE >
A national pandemic shifts to the South and Southwest
It has become increasingly clear that there will not be a meaningful domestic or global economic recovery until an effective coronavirus vaccine regimen is in place. The intensified spread of the coronavirus in states outside of the U.S. major metropolitan areas that were hardest hit early on poses ... READ MORE >
Policy uncertainty and the costs of prolonging the pandemic
After four months of an economic shutdown and the continued spread of the coronavirus throughout the 50 states, it is unlikely that a miracle recovery from the virus will materialize. The primary responsibility of addressing the pandemic has been delegated to the states, which is contributing to a sense ... READ MORE >
Pandemic choice: Reopening schools and the economy
We continue to make the case that until there is a national testing, tracing and treatment regime in place, any talk of economic recovery is premature at best. The same could be said of the reopening of schools. The next source of social conflict linked to the pandemic is likely to be whether ... READ MORE >
Houston we have a problem: A rising curve of coronavirus infections
Notions of an easing pandemic ought to be gently dismissed as the pace of newly reported coronavirus cases appears ready to breach the April peak amid the accelerating spread of the virus in the South, Southwest and the vast interior of the country. The sustained issues in California and the ... READ MORE >
A spring unlike any other: Ground rules for reopening
Thirty states have coronavirus reproduction rates of greater than one (R>1), meaning that each infected person is expected to spread the virus to more than one other person. This implies that the timing of reopening the economy may have been premature and the rules framing that reopening may have ... READ MORE >
Modeling the spread of coronavirus: The prospect, and the cost, of a second wave
There are now more new cases of COVID-19 infections in the South and Southwest and other less densely populated areas of the country than in the previously hard-hit metropolitan centers of the East Coast, Chicago and Los Angeles. Cases per capita are exploding across the South and Southwest, with ... READ MORE >