We expect the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate this week by 25 basis points to a range between 1.50% to 1.75% as the central bank attempts to offset the downward drag of the trade conflict and challenges in the domestic manufacturing sector. But policymakers, investors and firm managers ... READ MORE >
FOMC
Fed preview: Difficulty and divided FOMC
Monetary policy is difficult under the best of circumstances. The cross currents of the trade war, a modest exogenous supply shock in oil markets, political pressure from the executive branch to reduce interest rates and former colleagues suggesting the Federal Reserve get political make the rate decision ... READ MORE >
Fed cuts interest rates with another cut likely in September
Reductions or increases in U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy rate are often like trying to kill a mosquito with an anvil; they may get the job done but the fallout is always widespread and sure to cause a commotion. So it is with today’s rate cut as the Federal Open Market Committee sought to provide a ... READ MORE >
FOMC Preview: Insurance against a greater pace of economic deceleration
A sagging global economy dragged down by a trade war and a domestic manufacturing sector on the edge of contraction are sufficient risks to warrant a 25-basis-point-reduction in the federal funds rate to 2% to 2.25% percent when the Federal Open Market Committee concludes its policy meeting on ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Fed positions for rate cut later this year
The Federal Reserve is on the precipice of a major shift in policy as the economy, hiring and wages slow amid a backdrop of muted inflation. As risks to the economy proliferate, the central bank is well-positioned to await the outcome of the G20 meeting later this month, which may determine future ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Prudent pause and revising economic outlook downward
The dovish turn at the Federal Open Market Committee’s January meeting was predicated on an interesting juxtaposition: the committee telegraphed a prudent pause in its policy normalization campaign, while not substantially revising down its forward-looking economic outlook. We expect the March meeting to ... READ MORE >