Canada’s gross domestic product in August rose by 0.4% to CA$1.97 trillion, led by continued rising demand for client-facing business services, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Friday. The rise in spending on in-person services led the economic recovery, as August marked the first ... READ MORE >
GDP
Third-quarter GDP: Record growth, but closing the output gap will take years
Top-line growth of 33.1% in the third-quarter gross domestic product woefully overstates the impaired condition of the American economy that is still in need of robust fiscal support and monetary accommodation to close a prodigious gap between actual and potential growth. An intensifying pandemic and ... READ MORE >
Third-quarter GDP preview: What we talk about when we talk about GDP
Raymond Carver’s 1981 collection of short stories, “What We Talk About When We Talk About Love,” addressed the everyday lives of the working poor who are left to deal with financial problems, failed careers and shattered relationships. That is a fitting analogy for how we ought to discuss the ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Health care costs rise while tax revenue stagnates
As health care continues to represent a larger portion of U.S. gross domestic product, the federal government's ability to finance that expenditure through tax revenues has relatively declined. Corporate taxes as a percent of GDP peaked at 2.6% in 2007. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis that ... READ MORE >
Policy cliffs approaching as economy slows
While we anticipate that Congress will approve a fifth round of fiscal aid to support the economy as the pandemic intensifies, it is now clear that this aid will not be put in place in time to prevent an “air pocket” in the economy later this summer. The lapse in aid to 20 million Americans that ... READ MORE >
U.S. GDP grew an estimated 1.5% in January; household consumption expected to be strongest segment in Q1
The United States’ gross domestic product grew an estimated 1.5% in January, according to RSM’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity. That bump followed GDP growth of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019. We forecast a 1% GDP growth rate with downside risk for the first quarter of the year, with household ... READ MORE >
Estimating the probability of a recession
Consensus estimates of the probability of a U.S. recession have receded and our analysis of monthly economic data imply that risks of a recession are negligible for the time being. An alternative model run by the New York Federal Reserve suggests there is a 25.2% probability of a recession over the ... READ MORE >
U.S. Q4’19 GDP: slow and steady
The U.S. growth picture on Thursday arrived spot on with the 2.1% economic consensus driven by solid but slowing personal consumption and strong government spending. The large drop in imports, along with the noticeable easing of spending in the fourth quarter, does denote some caution on the growth ... READ MORE >
Expect fourth quarter GDP to come in at 1.7%
Following Wednesday morning's trade, retail and wholesale inventory, there is significant downside risk to the consensus forecast of 2.1% GDP growth. While we are keeping our below-consensus forecast of 1.7%, our tracking model suggests risks of a print below 1.5%. Late in business cycles, the Bureau ... READ MORE >
Boeing’s stopping of 737 Max production will affect far more than just Boeing
Boeing’s announcement this week that it would halt production of its troubled 737 Max in January 2020 will have an impact that extends far beyond its own business, and will most likely shave 0.5% off first-quarter GDP in the United States. The damage will ripple throughout the economy, affecting ... READ MORE >