The rise in spending on in-person services led the economic recovery, as August marked the first full month of most COVID-19 restrictions being lifted across the country. … READ MORE >
GDP
Third-quarter GDP: Record growth, but closing the output gap will take years
Top-line growth of 33.1% in the third quarter gross domestic product woefully overstates the impaired condition of the American economy that is still in need of robust fiscal support and monetary accommodation. … READ MORE >
Third-quarter GDP preview: What we talk about when we talk about GDP
We are forecasting a 35.5% increase in GDP at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate when the third-quarter estimate is released on Thursday. That data will illustrate an enormous gap between actual and potential output that will take some time to close. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Health care costs rise while tax revenue stagnates
As health care continues to represent a larger portion of U.S. gross domestic product, the federal government’s ability to finance that expenditure through tax revenues has relatively declined. Corporate taxes as a percent of GDP peaked at 2.6% in 2007. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis that proportion fell to 1% in 2009 and recovered to 1.9% in 2015. In 2018, the last year for which we have data, it was again at 2009’s level of 1%. … READ MORE >
Policy cliffs approaching as economy slows
While we anticipate that Congress will approve a fifth round of fiscal aid to support the economy as the pandemic intensifies, it is now clear that this aid will not be put in place in time to prevent an “air pocket” in the economy later this summer. … READ MORE >
U.S. GDP grew an estimated 1.5% in January; household consumption expected to be strongest segment in Q1
The United States’ gross domestic product grew an estimated 1.5% in January, according to RSM’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity. That bump followed GDP growth of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019. We forecast a 1% GDP growth rate with downside risk for the first quarter of the year, … … READ MORE >
Estimating the probability of a recession
Consensus estimates of the probability of a U.S. recession have receded and our analysis of monthly economic data imply that risks of a recession are negligible for the time being. … READ MORE >
U.S. Q4’19 GDP: slow and steady
The U.S. growth picture arrived spot on with the 2.1% economic consensus driven by solid but slowing personal consumption and strong government spending. The large drop in imports, along with the noticeable easing of spending in the fourth quarter, does denote some caution on the growth picture in light of growing domestic and global risks. … READ MORE >
Expect fourth quarter GDP to come in at 1.7%
The U.S. economy most likely expanded near a 1.7% output in the fourth quarter of 2019, near its long-term trend growth rate of 1.8% and just below the 2.1% consensus forecast. … READ MORE >
Boeing’s stopping of 737 Max production will affect far more than just Boeing
Boeing’s announcement this week that it would halt production of its troubled 737 Max in January 2020 will have an impact that extends far beyond its own business, and will most likely shave 0.5% off first-quarter GDP in the United States. … READ MORE >