We expect that the initial estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the first quarter, to be released Thursday, will show 6% growth, which is somewhat below the Bloomberg consensus of 6.8%. A wider-than-anticipated trade deficit, which we expect to subtract 1.5% from overall growth, and a ... READ MORE >
gross domestic product
Global fiscal policy: Reflation led by fiscal firepower
Despite efforts over the past four years to tear down the underpinnings of the global economy, pandemic economics has reinforced that this is indeed a global economy. Every one of the major-currency economies suffered through a health crisis and negative economic growth last year, according to the most ... READ MORE >
How to bridge the output gap and return the economy to full employment
Negotiations between the Biden administration and the GOP minority in the Senate reveal strengths and shortcomings in their policy preferences and objectives about how to promote an economic recovery. Through it all, estimates of the domestic output gap – the difference between actual and potential ... READ MORE >
Updating U.S. GDP forecast: Fiscal firepower to bolster growth
A confluence of recent events has set the stage for a significant increase in fiscal outlays this year that will boost growth in the American economy to 5.4% for the year, with risk to the upside. The upward revision comes after the Democrats captured control of the Senate by winning two runoff ... READ MORE >
Pre-holiday data deluge: A November to remember
A series of economic reports released on Wednesday captured the cross currents in the American economy: Jobless claims increase First-time jobless claims rose for the second consecutive week, with the top line increasing to 778,000 for the week ending Nov. 21, up from 742,000 previously, according to ... READ MORE >
The year ahead: Resilience, recovery and reimagination
A series of cross currents in public health, public policy and economics will shape growth conditions across the American economy during the year ahead. The juxtaposition of an intensifying pandemic and the encouraging developments in the race to find a vaccine is the perfect metaphor for growth over the ... READ MORE >
Third-quarter GDP: Record growth, but closing the output gap will take years
Top-line growth of 33.1% in the third-quarter gross domestic product woefully overstates the impaired condition of the American economy that is still in need of robust fiscal support and monetary accommodation to close a prodigious gap between actual and potential growth. An intensifying pandemic and ... READ MORE >
Third-quarter GDP preview: What we talk about when we talk about GDP
Raymond Carver’s 1981 collection of short stories, “What We Talk About When We Talk About Love,” addressed the everyday lives of the working poor who are left to deal with financial problems, failed careers and shattered relationships. That is a fitting analogy for how we ought to discuss the ... READ MORE >
Revising our growth forecast into 2021
Based on recent political developments, we are reducing our fourth-quarter growth forecast for gross domestic product to 2.25% and our first quarter 2021 forecast to 2.1% because of a likely lack of fiscal aid that will affect the economy and a growing uncertainty around the U.S. ... READ MORE >
In the long run, U.S. needs a productivity miracle
The Congressional Budget Office this week published its long-term budget outlook for 2020. Not surprisingly, its forecast of a 107% debt-to-GDP ratio in 2023 rising to 195% in 2050 garnered all of the attention. But beneath the headline are significant policy challenges facing the U.S. ... READ MORE >