The delta variant, disruptions to global supply chains and inflation all took a powerful toll on U.S. gross domestic product in the third quarter as the pace of growth slowed to 2% from 6.7% in the prior quarter. On a year-ago basis, GDP increased by 4.9%, while on a nominal basis, GDP expanded at ... READ MORE >
gross domestic product
GDP preview: Look for 2.9% growth in third quarter
Economic growth in the third quarter will capture the impact of the delta variant on the economy as disruptions to supply chains and rising inflation have dampened household consumption and fixed investment by businesses. We expect that U.S. gross domestic product in the third quarter will arrive at ... READ MORE >
Honey, I shrunk the output gap: Four quarters of investment growth begin to heal the economy
The gap between the actual and potential gross domestic product narrowed dramatically during the second quarter of the year. Real GDP grew by more than 12% on a year-over-year basis while nominal GDP in current dollar terms grew at a nearly 17% yearly rate. That was enough to reduce the already ... READ MORE >
GDP expands by 6.5% in second quarter as expansion takes hold
A global public health crisis resulting in a 31.4% decline in gross domestic product in the second quarter of last year has turned to expansion because of sustained robust fiscal aid and unorthodox monetary policy. The U.S. economy grew by 6.5% in the second quarter, marking the start of the current ... READ MORE >
Economic update: GDP to grow above 7% this year as expansion takes hold
The American economy will continue to boom in the second half of the year following what we expect will be 7.8% growth through the first six months. While growth will almost certainly peak in the second quarter at our revised 9.2% forecast, rising wages among workers down the income ladder will ... READ MORE >
First-quarter GDP: Growth improves as the recovery accelerates
An improved public health outlook linked to mass vaccinations and a flood of fiscal aid coursing through the American economy boosted gross domestic product by 6.4% during the first three months of the year. The composition of growth was rock solid as American households increased spending by ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Output gap to close in current quarter, an extraordinary achievement
A robust 6.4% growth rate in economic activity during the first three months of the year narrowed the output gap in gross domestic product and brought it closer to being erased. We are now fully confident that the American economy will move back above the pre-pandemic level of activity in the ... READ MORE >
GDP preview: 6% growth forecast with room to accelerate
We expect that the initial estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the first quarter, to be released Thursday, will show 6% growth, which is somewhat below the Bloomberg consensus of 6.8%. A wider-than-anticipated trade deficit, which we expect to subtract 1.5% from overall growth, and a ... READ MORE >
Global fiscal policy: Reflation led by fiscal firepower
Despite efforts over the past four years to tear down the underpinnings of the global economy, pandemic economics has reinforced that this is indeed a global economy. Every one of the major-currency economies suffered through a health crisis and negative economic growth last year, according to the most ... READ MORE >
How to bridge the output gap and return the economy to full employment
Negotiations between the Biden administration and the GOP minority in the Senate reveal strengths and shortcomings in their policy preferences and objectives about how to promote an economic recovery. Through it all, estimates of the domestic output gap – the difference between actual and potential ... READ MORE >