The discussion around economic growth going forward will be somewhat difficult and definitely misleading. The current Bloomberg consensus on third quarter growth in gross domestic product is 18% (RSM’s forecast is 14.2%), and that will likely be brought down noticeably in the coming days. The economy ... READ MORE >
gross domestic product
Second-quarter GDP: A historic decline that could have been worse
It could have been worse. The 32.9% decline in U.S. gross domestic product for the second quarter is the single largest decline in the report since the collection of the data began in 1947 and since the 8.4% drop during the fourth quarter of 2008, the height of the financial crisis. But the ... READ MORE >
Policy cliffs approaching as economy slows
While we anticipate that Congress will approve a fifth round of fiscal aid to support the economy as the pandemic intensifies, it is now clear that this aid will not be put in place in time to prevent an “air pocket” in the economy later this summer. The lapse in aid to 20 million Americans that ... READ MORE >
RSM monthly GDP index: Negative real growth continues into the second quarter
The RSM monthly index of real GDP growth that turned negative in March has now dropped below levels recorded during the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2007-9. We anticipate that the decline in second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product will be the largest single decline in the modern ... READ MORE >
First-quarter GDP is revised downward to a 5% contraction
A 10.5% decline in gross private investment was the primary driver of the downward revision to first-quarter gross domestic product to a 5% contraction, from a drop of 4.8%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Despite modest upward revisions to household consumption and robust residential ... READ MORE >
First-quarter GDP: Depression-like shock, no depression
Depression-like shock, and no depression, are likely to be the mantras for policymakers following this morning’s 4.8% drop in U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product. That drop in output and the 7.6% decline in household consumption almost certainly understate the depth and breadth of the ... READ MORE >
RSM Monthly Index of Economic Activity turns negative for first time since Great Recession
The RSM Monthly Index of Economic Activity is pointing toward negative real GDP growth for the first time since the Great Recession of 2008-9. Our index of underlying economic activity – which has been in decline since August 2018 as the global economy suffered through a trade war and a ... READ MORE >
Revising growth lower: A reset is coming for the U.S. economy
The American economy is simultaneously absorbing three distinct shocks, each of which will act as a large drag on economic growth during the current and second quarters of the year. The impact of the coronavirus will cause a disruption to American society that will last well beyond the current crisis and ... READ MORE >
Revising growth expectations down because of shocks from coronavirus
We are revising down our 2020 growth forecast because of supply, demand, and financial shocks rippling through the global and U.S. economies amid the spread of coronavirus. While we do not foresee a recession at this time because of expected fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, we believe economic ... READ MORE >
The new tech economy is all about location, location, location
Economic output in the United States is increasingly revealing a geographic divide, with a greater share of gross domestic product being concentrated in the nation’s largest metropolitan areas. In 2018, 31 counties generated 32% of U.S. gross domestic output, according to a report in Bloomberg based on ... READ MORE >