The American economy will continue to boom in the second half of the year following what we expect will be 7.8% growth through the first six months. … READ MORE >
gross domestic product
First-quarter GDP: Growth improves as the recovery accelerates
An improved public health outlook linked to mass vaccinations and a flood of fiscal aid coursing through the American economy boosted gross domestic product by 6.4% during the first three months of the year. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Output gap to close in current quarter, an extraordinary achievement
We are now fully confident that the American economy will move back above the pre-pandemic level of activity in the current quarter. Given the size of the shock to the real economy, and the depth and breadth of the crisis, this recovery is remarkable. … READ MORE >
GDP preview: 6% growth forecast with room to accelerate
We expect that the initial estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the first quarter, which will be released Thursday, will show 6% growth, which is somewhat below the Bloomberg consensus of 6.8%. … READ MORE >
Global fiscal policy: Reflation led by fiscal firepower
The policy response by governments and central banks around the world has focused on the integration of fiscal and monetary policy to offset the impact of the pandemic and create the conditions for economic expansion. … READ MORE >
How to bridge the output gap and return the economy to full employment
Our estimate of what that will take to close the output gap and return to full employment strongly implies the need for roughly $2 trillion in fiscal aid. … READ MORE >
Updating U.S. GDP forecast: Fiscal firepower to bolster growth
A confluence of recent events has set the stage for a significant increase in fiscal outlays this year that will boost growth in the American economy to 5.4% for the year, with risk to the upside. … READ MORE >
Pre-holiday data deluge: A November to remember
Among a series of economic reports released on Wednesday, first-time jobless claims increased for the second consecutive week, with the top line increasing to 778,000 for the week ending Nov. 21, up from 742,000 previously, … READ MORE >
The year ahead: Resilience, recovery and reimagination
The possibility of 500 million vaccine doses produced domestically for distribution in 2021 carries the potential that close to $4 trillion in impaired economic activity could be unlocked in the second half of next year. … READ MORE >
Third-quarter GDP: Record growth, but closing the output gap will take years
Top-line growth of 33.1% in the third quarter gross domestic product woefully overstates the impaired condition of the American economy that is still in need of robust fiscal support and monetary accommodation. … READ MORE >