As the economy approaches a full reopening, we expect that growth in 2022 will exceed 4%, the unemployment rate will fall to 3.5% and job growth will average roughly 230,000 per month. … READ MORE >
gross domestic product
Enhanced child tax credit was a game-changer for families, and the economy
Even as the economy slowed in the third quarter as the delta variant took hold, that slowdown would have been far worse if not for the enhanced child tax credit that was introduced on July 15. … READ MORE >
GDP grows 2% as delta variant, supply chains and inflation take their toll
The delta variant, disruptions to global supply chains and inflation all took a powerful toll on U.S. gross domestic product in the third quarter as the pace of growth slowed to 2% from 6.7% in the prior quarter. … READ MORE >
GDP preview: Look for 2.9% growth in third quarter
Economic growth in the third quarter will capture the impact of the delta variant on the economy as disruptions to global supply chains and rising inflation have dampened American household consumption and fixed investment by businesses. … READ MORE >
Honey, I shrunk the output gap: Four quarters of investment growth begin to heal the economy
The gap between the actual and potential gross domestic product narrowed dramatically during the second quarter of the year. Real GDP grew by more than 12% on a year-over-year basis while nominal GDP in current dollar terms grew at a nearly 17% yearly rate. … READ MORE >
GDP expands by 6.5% in second quarter as expansion takes hold
The composition of the growth was nothing short of virtuous. Household consumption rose by 11.8%, outlays on equipment grew by 13%, intellectual property by 10.8% and software investment increased by $13.8 billion – all of which helped drive the growth. … READ MORE >
Economic update: GDP to grow above 7% this year as expansion takes hold
The American economy will continue to boom in the second half of the year following what we expect will be 7.8% growth through the first six months. … READ MORE >
First-quarter GDP: Growth improves as the recovery accelerates
An improved public health outlook linked to mass vaccinations and a flood of fiscal aid coursing through the American economy boosted gross domestic product by 6.4% during the first three months of the year. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Output gap to close in current quarter, an extraordinary achievement
We are now fully confident that the American economy will move back above the pre-pandemic level of activity in the current quarter. Given the size of the shock to the real economy, and the depth and breadth of the crisis, this recovery is remarkable. … READ MORE >
GDP preview: 6% growth forecast with room to accelerate
We expect that the initial estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the first quarter, which will be released Thursday, will show 6% growth, which is somewhat below the Bloomberg consensus of 6.8%. … READ MORE >