Strong aggregate demand driven by job gains and rising real wages that in turn supported robust demand for services, rents and energy resulted in a 0.5% increase in the top-line consumer price index in January and a 0.4% advance in core inflation. A year-ago basis, the index increased by 3% and core ... READ MORE >
Inflation expectations
Morning market minute: Inflation expectations at risk
Well-anchored inflation expectations, based on the Federal Reserve's credibility over the past five decades, played a large part in the central bank surviving the great price and interest rate shocks of 2021. But given the considerable policy uncertainty caused by the return of global trade ... READ MORE >
U.S. consumer confidence improves to highest level in more than a year
Consumer confidence edged up in November to its highest level in more than a year, driven by improved sentiment about both the current economic situation and future expectations. The consumer confidence index rose to 111.7 from an upwardly revised 109.6, the Conference Board reported on Tuesday. The ... READ MORE >
U.S. inflation expectations are well anchored as Fed nears decision
American inflation expectations remain remarkably well anchored given the price shock of the past two and a half years. Our preferred measure of inflation expectations—the Federal Reserve’s five-year forward, five-year breakeven rate and the five-year forward breakeven index—imply that professional ... READ MORE >
U.S. consumer sentiment plunges on rising inflation
The sharp drop in consumer sentiment in May seems more like an overreaction to rising gasoline prices and overall inflation, rather than a reliable indicator for future spending. Inflation expectations rose sharply to 3.5% from 3.2% for the next 12 months while longer-term expectations inched up to ... READ MORE >
Inflation expectations remain remarkably well anchored
The inflation shock of the past three years is abating. One reason is that expectations of inflation continue to remain remarkably well anchored. The Federal Reserve’s five-year inflation forward breakeven rate-—a closely watched measure of pricing expectations—stands at 2.3%, which is below the ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment rises above expectations in January
Consumer sentiment rose in January to the highest level since August 2021 as inflation concerns eased. American consumers showed more confidence in the economy, both now and in the future, the University of Michigan reported on Friday. The overall index increased to 78.8 from 69.7, much higher than ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls to lowest level since May
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped unexpectedly in November to the lowest level since May as inflation concerns mounted. But the market and the Federal Reserve should be able to look through those surprises that were largely a short-lived reaction to elevated gasoline ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment hits 5-month low amid elevated inflation expectations
Consumer sentiment this month dropped to the lowest level since May, according to preliminary October data in the University of Michigan survey released Friday. The decline stems from the rebound in inflation, high gasoline prices and weakened expectations due to a looming government shutdown. More ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment gains on improving inflation expectations
Consumer sentiment increased to 63.9 in June, the highest since March as views on current and future economic conditions improved, according to the University of Michigan index released on Friday. While the index has bounced off the bottom of last June, it remains much lower than the pre-pandemic ... READ MORE >