March retail sales will see a pop of greater than 1% when the Census Bureau releases the data on Thursday as households pull forward consumption in advance of higher tariffs. … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations
Market Minute: Rising inflation expectations could send yields higher today
The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, to be released on Monday, carries the risk of sending yields higher across the curve. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls to the lowest level since early 2023
Most notably, inflation expectations worsened, with the 12-month gauge advancing to 4.9% and the five-to-10 metric increasing to 3.9%. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Rising short-term inflation expectations
But given the general uncertainty around trade policy, one should begin looking more closely at short-term inflation expectations, which have been on the rise. … READ MORE >
Inflation accelerates in January amid concerns about rising expectations
The CPI data for January will feed into expectations that the Fed is done cutting rates just as policy uncertainty on trade and immigration is likely to feed into rising inflation expectations.
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Morning market minute: Inflation expectations at risk
With the return of global trade protectionism and the return of mercantilism among the G-7 nations, it is not certain that inflation expectations will remain well anchored. … READ MORE >
U.S. consumer confidence improves to highest level in more than a year
Consumer confidence edged up in November to its highest level in more than a year, driven by improved sentiment about both the current economic situation and future expectations. … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation expectations are well anchored as Fed nears decision
Our read on the economy, hiring and the labor market suggests that the Fed can ease rates without dislodging well-anchored expectations and still establish price stability. … READ MORE >
U.S. consumer sentiment plunges on rising inflation
Inflation expectations rose sharply to 3.5% from 3.2% for the next 12 months while longer-term expectations inched up to 3.1% from 3.0%. … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations remain remarkably well anchored
The Federal Reserve’s five-year inflation forward breakeven rate—a closely watched measure of inflation expectations—stands at 2.3%, below the cyclical peak of 2.67% posted on April 19, 2022. … READ MORE >