The Institute for Supply Management's service index rose in November as business activities increased on the month. The unexpectedly strong purchasing managers survey data, released on Monday, added more pressure on the Federal Reserve as focuses on taming inflation, especially in services. The ... READ MORE >
inflation
U.S. jobs report: Rising wages pose a problem as hiring remains strong
Expectations that wage growth would slow were dashed inside the U.S. jobs report for November as average hourly earnings increased by 5.1% on a year-ago basis and by 0.6% on the month in addition to being revised higher in October. The primary policy takeaway from the report is that the Federal ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector nears contraction
The manufacturing sector grew for the 30th month in a row but barely hovered above contraction in November, according to data released by the Institute for Supply Management on Thursday. The ISM’s overall index slowed to 49%, barely above the contraction threshold at 48.7%. It was the third straight ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence drops as outlook darkens
Consumer confidence fell for the second month in a row as inflation and recession fears dampened the economic outlook. The Conference Board's confidence index dipped to 100.2 in November from 102.2 in October, significantly below the pre-pandemic level of 130. Rising prices remained consumers' top ... READ MORE >
Financial conditions update: Rising risks and tightening markets
Despite a strong bounce in U.S. financial markets following better-than-anticipated inflation data for October, financial conditions remain tight. The risk to the economic outlook has not abated after one month of encouraging consumer price index data. Central banks continue to increase the cost of ... READ MORE >
Canada inflation remains elevated amid high gas prices
Despite aggressive interest rate hikes and an economy that is beginning to cool, inflation in Canada remained elevated in October. The consumer price index rose by 6.9% on a year-over-year basis, matching September’s increase. On a month-over-month basis, the index rose by 0.7%, the largest increase since ... READ MORE >
Retail sales surge, easing recession fears for now
Retail sales data surged in October as holiday shopping started early for the second year in a row. The strong month, which followed a flat month in September, suggested that, at least for now, a recession was not at hand. Sales grew by a stronger-than-expected 1.3% with broad-based increases. Nine of ... READ MORE >
How high will interest rates go?
As the Federal Reserve struggles to tame inflation, the central bank is raising interest rates and tightening financial conditions in what we think is a regime change that will increase the cost of both public and private debt and curb growth. We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate above 5% in ... READ MORE >
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing.
A correction in the housing market as mortgage rates reach 20-year highs is underway. While overall price growth has cooled, though, the housing components inside the two inflation reports—the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index—have shown no signs of ... READ MORE >
U.S. October CPI: Inflation still high, but relief on the horizon
Inflation in the U.S. economy is approaching an inflection point where the central bank can begin considering a pause in its efforts to restore price stability and households can begin seeing possible relief from a deterioration in real income. The October consumer price index, which rose by 0.4% ... READ MORE >