A rapid decline in inflation amid robust hiring and an unemployment rate that stands at 3.6% despite a steep rise in interest rates underscore a resilient American economy that refuses to go gently into that good night. … READ MORE >
inflation
Consumer sentiment highest in nearly two years
Consumer sentiment jumped to its highest level since September 2021 on the heels of continuing disinflation and an improved view of household finances, according to the University of Michigan’s survey on Friday. … READ MORE >
Inflation slows to 3% in June but the Fed’s work is not done
The 3% year-ago increase in the consumer price index reported by the Labor Department on Wednesday is down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. … READ MORE >
Spending and inflation cool in May
Inflation continued to decelerate in May as the Federal Reserve’s key pricing metric—the personal consumption expenditures index—grew by only 3.8% from a year ago, the lowest level in more than two years. … READ MORE >
June jobs preview: Low unemployment shows a rapidly evolving labor market
We expect this strength to continue when the June employment report is released next Friday. Our provisional forecast implies a net gain of 225,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.7%. … READ MORE >
U.S. economy was a lot stronger in first quarter, final GDP estimate shows
The third and final estimate of gross domestic product showed a drastic upward revision to a 2.0% gain from 1.3% on a quarterly and annualized basis. … READ MORE >
Is the economy headed for a recession? Jobless claims are saying yes.
Despite the labor market’s resilience and persistently low claims compared to historical norms, the steady increases in claims since late last year are ringing alarm bells. … READ MORE >
Midyear global outlook: Slowdown followed by recovery as India leads the way
The global economy is in a precarious state these days, with the resilience that was exhibited earlier this year expected to fade. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment gains on improving inflation expectations
What is most notable from Friday’s consumer sentiment data is the plunge in year-ahead inflation expectations to 3.3% from 4.2%, an enouraging sign for the Fed in its effort to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
Retail sales rise more than expected amid labor market softening
Retail sales rose more than expected in May, pointing to continued resilience in spending that might push a recession further down the road. The strong sales figure, though, was reported as layoffs continued to increase. … READ MORE >