The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index slipped back to 1.8 standard deviations below normal, the 15th consecutive month of negative values. … READ MORE >
inflation
RSM US Financial Conditions Index moving toward neutral
With the money market at normal levels of risk, and with surging equities balancing out the caution displayed in the bond market, our composite financial conditions market is fast approaching neutral. … READ MORE >
Fed’s key wage gauge falls to lowest level since June 2021
The Employment Cost Index—the Federal Reserve’s closely watched metric on wage growth—increased by 1.0% in the second quarter, the slowest since June 2021. … READ MORE >
Resilience defined as American economy continues to defy expectations
Driven by the household consumption, the American economy expanded at a 2.4% seasonally adjusted annualized rate. … READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits drop in June as rates surge
New residential starts fell by 8% on the month, while permits for new buildings declined by 3.7%, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
U.S. second-half economic outlook: Muddling through
A rapid decline in inflation amid robust hiring and an unemployment rate that stands at 3.6% despite a steep rise in interest rates underscore a resilient American economy that refuses to go gently into that good night. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment highest in nearly two years
Consumer sentiment jumped to its highest level since September 2021 on the heels of continuing disinflation and an improved view of household finances, according to the University of Michigan’s survey on Friday. … READ MORE >
Inflation slows to 3% in June but the Fed’s work is not done
The 3% year-ago increase in the consumer price index reported by the Labor Department on Wednesday is down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. … READ MORE >
Spending and inflation cool in May
Inflation continued to decelerate in May as the Federal Reserve’s key pricing metric—the personal consumption expenditures index—grew by only 3.8% from a year ago, the lowest level in more than two years. … READ MORE >
June jobs preview: Low unemployment shows a rapidly evolving labor market
We expect this strength to continue when the June employment report is released next Friday. Our provisional forecast implies a net gain of 225,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.7%. … READ MORE >