Inflation continued to decelerate in May as the Federal Reserve’s key pricing metric—the personal consumption expenditures index—grew by only 3.8% from a year ago, the lowest level in more than two years. … READ MORE >
inflation
June jobs preview: Low unemployment shows a rapidly evolving labor market
We expect this strength to continue when the June employment report is released next Friday. Our provisional forecast implies a net gain of 225,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.7%. … READ MORE >
U.S. economy was a lot stronger in first quarter, final GDP estimate shows
The third and final estimate of gross domestic product showed a drastic upward revision to a 2.0% gain from 1.3% on a quarterly and annualized basis. … READ MORE >
Is the economy headed for a recession? Jobless claims are saying yes.
Despite the labor market’s resilience and persistently low claims compared to historical norms, the steady increases in claims since late last year are ringing alarm bells. … READ MORE >
Midyear global outlook: Slowdown followed by recovery as India leads the way
The global economy is in a precarious state these days, with the resilience that was exhibited earlier this year expected to fade. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment gains on improving inflation expectations
What is most notable from Friday’s consumer sentiment data is the plunge in year-ahead inflation expectations to 3.3% from 4.2%, an enouraging sign for the Fed in its effort to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
Retail sales rise more than expected amid labor market softening
Retail sales rose more than expected in May, pointing to continued resilience in spending that might push a recession further down the road. The strong sales figure, though, was reported as layoffs continued to increase. … READ MORE >
Fed pauses rate hikes while signaling a tightening bias
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday kept its policy rate in a range between 5% and 5.25% while signaling that it will most likely hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at least twice before the end of the year. … READ MORE >
Inflation relief in the pipeline as food, gas and service prices ease
Top-line U.S. inflation is moving back toward levels where it is appropriate for the Federal Reserve to pause in its efforts to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
Interest rate outlook: Debt ceiling standoff raised the cost of doing business
The Treasury’s need to sell $1.1 trillion in debt along with a strong probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike or two will push interest rates higher, raising the cost of doing business. … READ MORE >