We expect the Federal Reserve to hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5% to 5.25% at its May 3 meeting, with changes in the FOMC statement that imply a possible pause in the rate hike campaign and a bias toward future tightening if inflation proves sticky and stubborn. … READ MORE >
inflation
Growth, employment and identifying the end of a business cycle
The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are starting to pull down growth just as a period of tighter lending will probably cool the economy further over the next few months. … READ MORE >
Defense tech companies seek growth
Workforce issues, supply chain problems and inflation continue to challenge contractors’ ability to improve operating margins. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims and producer prices point to a further slowdown
For the Federal Reserve, the new data bolstered the case that it will pause its rate increases after one final hike in this cycle on May 3. … READ MORE >
March inflation data points to a Fed rate peak in May
The inflation outlook improved in March because of a mix of year-over-year base effects and a significant decline in energy prices, all of which caused the top-line reading to decline to 5% from 6% previously. … READ MORE >
Service sector growth weakens in March
March’s services composite index was 51.2, slightly higher than the long-term threshold of 49.9, according to ISM data. An index above 49.9 indicates expansion. … READ MORE >
Job openings and factory orders soften amid recession concerns
Job openings and factory orders came in lower than expected on Tuesday, continuing to show signs of softening economic demand that should work in the Federal Reserve’s favor in fighting inflation. When the new data is combined with softer economic data released recently, the risk of a recession in … … READ MORE >
Manufacturing continues to show recession signs
The manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth month in a row in March as the pace of the decline accelerated, according to ISM data. … READ MORE >
What the surprise oil production cut by OPEC+ means
Oil markets are reeling after OPEC+ said in a surprise announcement on Sunday that it would cut up to 1.15 million barrels a day in its target production starting next month. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims inch up while revised GDP shows softer growth
New filings for jobless benefits inched up to 198,000 last week from 191,000 earlier, staying below the pre-pandemic level, while fourth-quarter gross domestic product was revised down slightly from a 2.7% increase to 2.6%. … READ MORE >