The strong jobs report should get the attention of the Bank of Canada as it weighs its next move in June. … READ MORE >
inflation
Hiring in U.S. remains robust in April as the jobless rate falls to 3.4%
We have made the case over the past few months that resilience rather than recession is a more apt description of the American economy. The net change in employment in the April jobs report of 253,000 reported by the Labor Department on Friday reflects that resilience. In addition, the … … READ MORE >
Fed hikes rate a quarter point while creating framework for a pause
The 25 basis-point increase was accompanied by changes in the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement that imply a possible pause at the Fed’s next meeting in June. … READ MORE >
Job openings fell in March as the labor market softened
Job openings fell to 9.6 million in March from almost 10 million in February, a clear sign that the labor market is softening as the economy slows down. … READ MORE >
Canadian recession tracker: Preparing for landing
A recession, albeit mild and brief, is most likely on the horizon. Our forecast puts the chance of a recession at 60% by the middle of the year, with the downturn hitting the economy unevenly. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Is 10 the magic number?
We expect the Federal Reserve to hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5% to 5.25% at its May 3 meeting, with changes in the FOMC statement that imply a possible pause in the rate hike campaign and a bias toward future tightening if inflation proves sticky and stubborn. … READ MORE >
Growth, employment and identifying the end of a business cycle
The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are starting to pull down growth just as a period of tighter lending will probably cool the economy further over the next few months. … READ MORE >
Defense tech companies seek growth
Workforce issues, supply chain problems and inflation continue to challenge contractors’ ability to improve operating margins. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims and producer prices point to a further slowdown
For the Federal Reserve, the new data bolstered the case that it will pause its rate increases after one final hike in this cycle on May 3. … READ MORE >
March inflation data points to a Fed rate peak in May
The inflation outlook improved in March because of a mix of year-over-year base effects and a significant decline in energy prices, all of which caused the top-line reading to decline to 5% from 6% previously. … READ MORE >