The Federal Reserve finds itself as it lifted its policy rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday amid a quickly evolving global banking crisis. … READ MORE >
inflation
Consumer sentiment fell in March, before the financial turmoil
Consumer sentiment for March dropped to 63.4 from 67 as consumers’ confidence in the current economic conditions and their expectations both worsened on the month, though the survey results did not reflect the recent turmoil in financial markets … READ MORE >
The great deposit migration and emergency borrowing at the Fed discount window
In the past week alone, the Federal Reserve’s loans outstanding to the financial system have ballooned to about $318 billion, up from $15 billion a week ago. … READ MORE >
How many jobs need to be sacrificed to tame inflation? Cost is rising, RSM models show.
Under our base case, a loss of 2.5 million jobs is consistent with a 5.1% unemployment rate, 3% inflation and a likely recession under current economic conditions. … READ MORE >
Retail sales and producer inflation fell in February
Retail sales dropped in February after surging in January, while producer inflation fell unexpectedly on the month, signaling easing demand pressures. … READ MORE >
February CPI: Balancing price stability vs. financial stability as inflation remains elevated
Inflation in the United States accelerated modestly in February, increasing by 0.4% on the month and by 6% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
U.S. job creation remains robust, implying more aggressive rate hikes
February showed a 311,000 net change in total employment amid a 3.6% unemployment rate and 4.6% increase in average hourly earnings on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index tightens as market sees a hard landing
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index inched down to 0.6 standard deviations below neutral as policymakers, investors and firm managers prepare for a period of higher interest rates and persistent inflation. … READ MORE >
Business spending on equipment rose in January
Investments in business equipment posted a sharp rebound in January after two consecutive months of disappointing declines. … READ MORE >
Bond market shows a shift in inflation expectations
The forward market now anticipates a 5.25% terminal rate for the federal funds rate at the Fed’s June meeting and then a gradual unwinding just below 4% in two years. … READ MORE >