Retail sales and producer inflation data came in lower than expected in December, giving the Federal Reserve more reasons to begin to slow down its rate hikes. Sales at retail stores and online showed broad declines in the last month of the year, dropping by 1.1%. November's number was also ... READ MORE >
inflation
U.S. inflation eases in December, supporting a moderation in Fed rate hikes
A third straight month of improvement in top-line inflation data implies that conditions are moving in the direction where the Federal Reserve can consider further moderation in the pace of its rate hike campaign to restore price stability. The tone and tenor of the data imply an underlying ... READ MORE >
U.S. financial markets in the new year
Financial markets have started the year facing a host of challenges, including the prospect of a stand-off over the debt ceiling in a divided Congress and the possibility of a recession later this year. At the same time, businesses are contending with higher costs associated with the ... READ MORE >
Canada job gains top forecast, complicating decision on rates
The Canadian labour market once again kept managers, investors and, most important, the Bank of Canada on edge as it added 104,000 net jobs in December, significantly higher than the forecast of 5,000. December was the second month in the last three that job gains exceeded 100,000. The ... READ MORE >
U.S. economy generates 4.5 million jobs in 2022 as labor market remains hot
If one would have asked a year ago if the economy would expand at above a 2.5% clip and produce 4.52 million jobs by the end of the year, all while the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 450 basis points, the answer would probably have been no. But that is just where the economy stands ... READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Strong close to year as wages remain elevated
We expect the December U.S. jobs report on Friday to show an increase in total employment of 220,000 positions, which would bring the total number of jobs created last year to roughly 4.53 million. While such a gain would fall below the three-month moving average of 263,000 through the end of ... READ MORE >
Canada inflation eases, but the fight is not over
Inflation in Canada inched down in November, implying more room for the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates despite a slowing economy. November's headline Consumer Price Index dropped to a 6.8% increase from 6.9% on a year-ago basis, remaining significantly above the 2% target rate, ... READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits fall as the correction continues
Housing starts dropped for the third month in a row in November as the housing market continued to be in correction mode, the Commerce Department reported on Tuesday. There were 1.4 million residential starts on an annualized basis, falling short of the 1.7 million that we estimate are needed to meet ... READ MORE >
Financial conditions and Canada’s real economy
Tightening financial conditions are hurting the Canadian economy to the point where the rising risk of a recession and a housing contraction much larger than anticipated cannot be discounted. Although we expect the Bank of Canada to raise its policy rate to a peak of 4.75% early next year, after ... READ MORE >
FOMC decision: Fed lifts policy rate to range of 4.25% to 4.5%
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday laid the groundwork for an eventual pause in interest rate increases early next year, even as it indicated it intends to continue lifting rates into a slowdown. The projection of a slowdown, which is in the Summary of Economic Projections released after the Federal ... READ MORE >