The manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth month in a row in March as the pace of the decline accelerated, according to ISM data. … READ MORE >
inflation
What the surprise oil production cut by OPEC+ means
Oil markets are reeling after OPEC+ said in a surprise announcement on Sunday that it would cut up to 1.15 million barrels a day in its target production starting next month. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims inch up while revised GDP shows softer growth
New filings for jobless benefits inched up to 198,000 last week from 191,000 earlier, staying below the pre-pandemic level, while fourth-quarter gross domestic product was revised down slightly from a 2.7% increase to 2.6%. … READ MORE >
Catch-25: Fed hikes rates amid financial stability risk
The Federal Reserve finds itself as it lifted its policy rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday amid a quickly evolving global banking crisis. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment fell in March, before the financial turmoil
Consumer sentiment for March dropped to 63.4 from 67 as consumers’ confidence in the current economic conditions and their expectations both worsened on the month, though the survey results did not reflect the recent turmoil in financial markets … READ MORE >
The great deposit migration and emergency borrowing at the Fed discount window
In the past week alone, the Federal Reserve’s loans outstanding to the financial system have ballooned to about $318 billion, up from $15 billion a week ago. … READ MORE >
How many jobs need to be sacrificed to tame inflation? Cost is rising, RSM models show.
Under our base case, a loss of 2.5 million jobs is consistent with a 5.1% unemployment rate, 3% inflation and a likely recession under current economic conditions. … READ MORE >
Retail sales and producer inflation fell in February
Retail sales dropped in February after surging in January, while producer inflation fell unexpectedly on the month, signaling easing demand pressures. … READ MORE >
February CPI: Balancing price stability vs. financial stability as inflation remains elevated
Inflation in the United States accelerated modestly in February, increasing by 0.4% on the month and by 6% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
U.S. job creation remains robust, implying more aggressive rate hikes
February showed a 311,000 net change in total employment amid a 3.6% unemployment rate and 4.6% increase in average hourly earnings on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >